【安联保险集团_Allianz_】2024年全球贸易调查报告_32页_4mb

Allianz Trade Global Survey 2024 Summary

Key Insights:

Geopolitical Risks and Selective Globalization

Optimism vs. Concerns

• 82% of surveyed companies (3,000+) expect export growth in 2024, nearly doubling the 70% estimate from 2023 (which saw a recession).
• Top Risk: Geopolitical risks (73%) are the primary concern, followed by input shortages (31%) and financing/non-payment risks (20%).
• 53% of companies consider relocating supply chains due to geopolitical risks but only a minority take concrete action.

Selective Globalization

• China: No signs of full decoupling; 33% plan to increase footprint in China, only 11% decrease.
• Diversification: German, French, and US firms are diversifying away from China to Asia-Pacific and Western Europe.
• Preferences: Asia-Pacific (37%) and Western Europe (17%) are the preferred regions for relocation.

AI's Impact on Trade

• 65-81% of companies in China and Poland expect AI to significantly impact productivity.
• AI is viewed as a tool to optimize supply chains, enhance export opportunities, and streamline customs processes, particularly in the US and Poland.

Sustainability Challenges

• Only 65% aim to reduce CO2 emissions by more than 5% in 2024.
• Construction (51%), electricity (40%), and energy (39%) sectors show the highest reduction intentions.
• Policy interventions (carbon pricing, subsidies for green technologies) are seen as crucial but fragmented efforts hinder global progress.

Non-Payment Risks

• 40% of companies expect non-payment risk to rise in 2024 (similar to last year's rate).
• 55% of companies wait over 50 days for payment; 42% expect terms to increase in the next six to twelve months.

Trade Resilience and Trends

• Global trade expected to grow by +2.8% in 2024, below the long-term 5% average, reflecting disruptions like the Red Sea crisis and rising protectionism.
• Reshoring trends are expected to continue at a similar rate (44%) but not accelerate significantly.

Labor and ESG Factors

• Labor-related concerns are a major obstacle for reshoring, especially in the UK.
• ESG integration into supply chains is underway, but only 31% of companies consider ESG the most important factor in supplier selection.

Overall Outlook

• Optimism about export growth persists despite risks.
• Fragmented environmental policies and lack of coordination reduce effectiveness.
• Digital trade expansion offers some environmental benefits but challenges remain.

Appendix: Distribution of companies based on turnover and production outside main locations, sector breakdowns, and details on company profiles.