20220128-银河期货-商品估值_周期报告_192页_10mb

报告摘要

银河期货商品估值&周期报告总结

一、说明

本报告由银河期货发布，作者为潘盛杰，提供商品期货的估值与周期分析。报告结构清晰，包含估值报告和多个商品周期分析章节。主要特点如下：

估值报告：基于商品期货合约的近月结算价，若无近月价格则引用现货价格。
相对强弱：描述商品当前涨幅在其历史周期中的位置，通过计算（C-B）/(A+B)来评估。
肥尾指数：衡量数据的极端波动情况，数值越大表示正反馈越明显，易发生极端行情。
周期分析：报告基于质数年（1年、2年、3年、5年、7年、11年）进行分析，其余周期为质数年周期的展开。

二、估值报告核心数据

商品	A97%分位同比变动	B3%分位同比变动	(A-B)域	H肥尾指数	日度价格取样个数	C本周同比变动	D1周前同比变动	E2周前同比变动	F3周前同比变动	(C-B)/(A+B)本周相对强弱	(D-B)/(A+B)1周前相对强弱	(E-B)/(A+B)2周前相对强弱	(F-B)/(A+B)3周前相对强弱
SN	99%	-26%	125%	38.6%	1669	112.1%	115.9%	113.7%	105.8%	110.8%	113.9%	112.1%	105.8%
AL	41%	-31%	72%	32.3%	6511	46.9%	46.5%	45.1%	37.1%	107.8%	107.2%	105.2%	94.1%
L	19%	-27%	47%	36.9%	3530	21.0%	18.6%	18.1%	16.4%	103.7%	98.6%	97.6%	94.0%
UR	47%	-27%	74%	35.2%	602	45.5%	43.2%	45.7%	46.9%	98.2%	95.0%	98.4%	100.0%
SA	72%	-38%	110%	38.3%	523	62.2%	56.0%	53.3%	53.5%	91.2%	85.6%	83.1%	83.4%
RM	35%	-27%	62%	39.6%	2209	28.6%	17.7%	24.0%	27.2%	89.7%	72.0%	82.3%	87.6%
OI	48%	-33%	81%	38.7%	3567	38.4%	36.3%	34.3%	35.6%	88.4%	85.7%	83.3%	84.9%
FU	66%	-60%	126%	38.3%	862	49.1%	48.2%	27.4%	30.1%	86.5%	85.8%	69.3%	71.5%
SS	33%	-26%	58%	44.1%	570	23.4%	24.7%	23.2%	20.8%	84.2%	86.4%	84.0%	79.8%
EB	43%	-49%	92%	37.0%	569	23.4%	21.0%	21.0%	23.6%	78.5%	75.9%	75.9%	78.7%
PG	59%	-47%	106%	43.6%	449	33.1%	22.5%	19.7%	15.2%	75.8%	65.8%	63.2%	58.9%
LU	62%	-64%	126%	40.2%	392	31.2%	27.5%	19.5%	15.1%	75.4%	72.5%	66.2%	62.6%
V	43%	-20%	63%	36.4%	3087	27.7%	27.5%	24.1%	22.3%	75.2%	74.9%	69.4%	66.7%
P	92%	-34%	126%	37.6%	3471	56.2%	51.2%	42.1%	42.6%	71.7%	67.7%	60.5%	60.9%
TA	52%	-43%	94%	38.8%	3678	23.9%	21.1%	19.1%	14.9%	70.7%	67.7%	65.6%	61.2%
CS	32%	-24%	55%	36.2%	1733	14.7%	11.0%	12.2%	15.6%	69.5%	62.8%	64.9%	71.1%
BU	56%	-52%	108%	44.6%	2029	23.2%	20.6%	12.3%	14.0%	69.5%	67.1%	59.3%	60.9%
C	39%	-29%	68%	40.4%	4221	17.6%	13.3%	13.9%	15.7%	68.6%	62.3%	63.1%	65.8%
CF	98%	-33%	131%	42.3%	4302	56.7%	53.6%	54.4%	52.1%	68.6%	66.2%	66.8%	65.1%
SC	82%	-51%	132%	32.3%	937	39.1%	35.9%	29.0%	23.3%	67.9%	65.5%	60.3%	56.0%
A	72%	-21%	93%	34.4%	5593	35.7%	29.2%	29.3%	30.3%	60.8%	53.7%	53.8%	54.9%
SM	51%	-32%	83%	41.0%	1822	18.5%	18.1%	22.4%	20.5%	60.3%	59.9%	65.0%	62.8%
SF	78%	-27%	104%	41.6%	1822	36.0%	36.0%	31.6%	28.9%	60.1%	60.2%	55.9%	53.3%
MA	58%	-42%	100%	36.4%	2496	17.2%	12.8%	6.9%	9.4%	59.0%	54.6%	48.7%	51.2%
CU	76%	-30%	106%	28.1%	6514	32.1%	30.9%	31.9%	29.5%	58.9%	57.8%	58.7%	56.4%
Y	78%	-30%	108%	38.1%	3908	33.4%	30.1%	19.3%	18.2%	58.9%	55.9%	45.9%	44.9%
PP	38%	-32%	70%	37.4%	1933	8.4%	6.8%	6.0%	6.0%	57.6%	55.4%	54.2%	54.1%
HC	58%	-33%	91%	32.9%	1918	17.9%	18.1%	16.4%	14.2%	55.9%	56.2%	54.3%	51.8%
EG	61%	-50%	111%	37.4%	764	11.1%	7.2%	2.2%	7.8%	55.1%	51.6%	47.1%	52.1%
NI	116%	-49%	166%	33.8%	1669	41.5%	37.9%	33.4%	28.1%	54.9%	52.8%	50.0%	46.8%
PF	55%	-35%	90%	39.9%	321	13.6%	12.8%	9.7%	8.1%	54.3%	53.3%	49.9%	48.1%
RB	72%	-36%	108%	34.7%	3126	21.3%	18.5%	14.7%	15.8%	52.8%	50.2%	46.7%	47.7%
JD	46%	-31%	78%	42.8%	2007	9.6%	-2.2%	1.2%	9.3%	52.7%	37.6%	41.9%	52.4%
FG	79%	-25%	104%	44.0%	2228	28.0%	24.7%	10.8%	0.2%	50.8%	47.6%	34.2%	24.0%
SP	55%	-34%	89%	47.2%	773	10.8%	14.4%	19.5%	16.8%	50.1%	54.1%	59.9%	56.8%