20180918-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_20页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of financial markets and company updates across several Asian countries, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It includes market indices, company-specific updates, investment recommendations, and key financial metrics.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	26062.1	(0.4)	0.8	1.5	5.4
S&P 500	2888.8	(0.6)	0.4	1.4	8.0
FTSE 100	7302.1	(0.0)	0.3	(3.4)	(5.0)
AS30	6293.9	0.3	0.7	(2.1)	2.1
CSI 300	3204.9	(1.1)	(0.8)	(0.8)	(20.5)
FSSTI	3141.4	(0.6)	0.7	(2.1)	(7.7)
HSCEI	10462.1	(1.1)	0.3	(0.5)	(10.7)
HSI	26932.9	(1.3)	1.2	(1.0)	(10.0)
JCI	5824.3	(1.8)	(0.5)	0.7	(8.4)
KLCI	1803.8	0.6	0.3	1.1	0.4
KOSPI	2303.0	(0.7)	0.6	2.5	(6.7)
Nikkei 225	23094.7	1.2	3.5	3.7	1.4
SET	1718.4	(0.2)	1.6	1.7	(2.0)
TWSE	10828.6	(0.4)	1.0	1.3	1.7
BDI	1366	(1.2)	(7.8)	(20.7)	0.0
CPO (RM/mt)	2210	0.0	(0.3)	0.8	(7.5)
Brent Crude (US$/bbl)	78	(0.1)	0.9	8.7	16.7

Company Updates

Tunas Baru Lampung (TBLA IJ/BUY/Rp1,130/Target: Rp1,300)

Biodiesel B20 Programme: TBLA is a beneficiary of Indonesia's B20 programme, which is expected to increase biodiesel sales volume by 55% yoy in 2018.
Earnings Growth: The company's biodiesel sales volume is expected to increase to 150,000kl in 2018, with 20,000kl of exports to China.
Sugar Segment: Sugar margin remains intact despite lower domestic ASP, due to reduced input costs.
EPS Growth: Estimated single-digit EPS growth for 2018-2019.
Target Price: Cut to Rp1,300, based on 6.4x 2018-19F average PE.
Risks: Potential forex losses and increased interest costs due to a US$200m bond issuance.

Globetronics Technology (GTB MK/HOLD/RM2.60/Target: RM2.52)

Sensor Production: Sensor production volume will remain strong until end-2018 due to the ramp-up for new US smartphone models.
Earnings Outlook: Earnings are expected to jump in 2H18, then drop in 1H19.
Hold Recommendation: Maintain HOLD due to the expected softening of production volume in 2019.
Key Metrics: Net turnover increased to RM389m in 2018F, with operating profit at RM89m and net profit at RM83m.

Strategy & Market Outlook

China

Monetary Policy: PBOC is expected to focus on lowering domestic funding costs, which may lead to further renminbi weakness.
Impact on Markets: Renminbi weakness could affect investor confidence and market stability.
Monetary Conditions Index: Rebounded to 82.3 in July 2018 from 74.6 in June 2018.
Interest Rates: SHIBOR curve has shifted down since mid-July, and 10-year government bond yield is at 3.68%.
Corporate Funding: Corporate bond spreads have increased, and funding costs have risen.
Bond Defaults: 66 bond defaults in 2018, up from 49 in 2017, with a cumulative default amount of Rmb62.4b.
Economic Growth: China's GDP growth is forecasted at 6.4% for 2018F and 6.2% for 2020F.

Key Assumptions

Country	GDP (yoy) 2017	GDP (yoy) 2018F	GDP (yoy) 2019F
US	2.2	2.7	2.3
Euro Zone	2.4	2.1	1.8
Japan	1.7	1.2	1.1
Singapore	3.6	3.2	2.8
Malaysia	5.9	4.8	4.8
Thailand	3.9	4.5	4.2
Indonesia	5.1	5.3	5.4
Hong Kong	3.8	3.8	2.8
China	6.9	6.4	6.2
CPO (RM/mt)	2,783	2,400	2,500
Brent (Average) (US$/bbl)	55.00	71.60	71.00

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Begin	Close
Roadshow with China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings (570 HK)	Taipei	20 Sep	21 Sep
Roadshow with PT. Sarimelati Kencana (PZZA LJ)	Taipei	25 Sep	26 Sep
Analyst Presentation on China Automobile Sector	Kuala Lumpur	25 Sep	26 Sep
Corporate Roadshow with BBI Life Sciences Corporation (1035 HK)	Hong Kong	26 Sep	26 Sep
Analyst Presentation on 2H18 Malaysia Strategy & Outlook	Taipei	27 Sep	28 Sep
Analyst Presentation on ASEAN Plantation	Singapore	4 Oct	4 Oct
Roadshow with CSE Global (CSE SP)	Kuala Lumpur	4 Oct	4 Oct
UOB Kay Hian Asian Gems Conference	Singapore	9 Oct	10 Oct
Roadshow with Digi.com (DIGI MK)	Canada	30 Oct	2 Nov
UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional 1H2019 Strategy Conference	Kuala Lumpur	13 Nov	13 Nov

Investment Recommendations

BUY Recommendations

Tunas Baru Lampung (TBLA IJ): Maintained BUY with a target price of Rp1,300, based on 6.4x 2018-19F average PE.
Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH): BUY with a target price of 9.53 and a potential upside of 31.8%.
Gudang Garam (GGRM LJ): BUY with a target price of 85,000 and a potential upside of 16.5%.
PP Persero (PTPP LJ): BUY with a target price of 3,700 and a potential upside of 143.4%.
CIMB (CIMB MK): BUY with a target price of 6.70 and a potential upside of 7.5%.
OCBC (OCBC SP): BUY with a target price of 13.68 and a potential upside of 23.8%.
SingTel (ST SP): BUY with a target price of 3.98 and a potential upside of 28.0%.
Siam Cement (SCC TB): BUY with a target price of 530 and a potential upside of 19.9%.

SELL Recommendation

Hartalega (HART MK): SELL with a target price of 4.02 and a potential downside of 39.8%.

Analysts

Tham Mun Hon, CFA: +852 2236 6799 | munhon.tham@uobkayhian.com.hk
Gary TY Kong: +852 2236 6761 | gary.kong@uobkayhian.com.hk

Summary of Key Points

China: PBOC is expected to focus on lowering domestic funding costs, which may lead to further renminbi weakness and increased market volatility.
Indonesia: TBLA is expected to benefit from the biodiesel B20 programme with increased sales volume and profitability.
Malaysia: Globetronics' sensor production volume is expected to remain strong until end-2018, followed by a drop in 2019.
Singapore: Singapore Airlines faces challenges due to Virgin Australia's exceptional loss and rising jet fuel prices.
Investment Outlook: The BUY recommendation for TBLA is based on its strong performance in the biodiesel segment and potential for growth.
Market Indices: Most indices show positive performance, but the FTSE 100 and CSI 300 have seen declines.
Corporate Events: Several roadshows and analyst presentations are scheduled in the coming weeks, focusing on key sectors like plantation and sensors.