20231201-招银国际-Riding_on_Bigo_s_solid_recovery_7页_1mb

报告摘要

BUY recommendation with target price of US$50.50, indicating a potential upside of 31.3%.

JOYY's fundamentals are expected to improve due to Bigo's ongoing recovery and margin enhancement.
Third quarter 2023 results show positive growth: revenue increased 3.6% quarter-over-quarter, and non-GAAP net profit was $81 million, surpassing expectations.
Bigo achieved its first year-over-year revenue growth in six quarters, supported by strong performance in developed markets.
Shareholder returns are viewed positively; in the first nine months of 2023, $355.4 million was returned through dividends and buybacks, with plans for $530 million in share repurchases.
Halo business adjustment is projected to moderately reduce revenue in 2023-2025 but is deemed acceptable and may boost earnings through better cost control.
Forecasts suggest continued revenue and earnings growth in 2023-2025, with stable or improving margins.

Revenue:
- 3Q23: +3.6% QoQ, +3.6% year-to-date.
- 4Q23E: +1.2% YoY growth driven by Bigo.
- Full year 2023E revenue estimated at $2.257 billion.
Earnings:
- 3Q23 non-GAAP net profit: $81 million (14.3% margin).
- 4Q23E adj. net profit forecast at $48 million.
Margins: Gross margin between 36.5%–36.6% projected for 2023E-2025E, with operating and net margins improving through cost efficiencies.

Maintain BUY due to higher earnings projections despite revenue adjustments.
Target price unchanged at US$50.50 based on 6x 2023 earnings estimate for Bigo Live.
Upside potential of 31.3%; compare to sector and market benchmarks comments in disclosures.

Report includes analyst certification and important disclosures noting market risks, financial uncertainties, and potential conflicts of interest.
Past performance does not guarantee future results; actual events may differ from forecasts.
All investments involve risks; readers should consult financial advisors and refer to the full report for details.

展开完整摘要