20240112-天风证券-固定收益点评_12月出口数据点评_5页_337kb

Export Data Summary for December 2023

• Export growth in December was driven by a base effect, but环比 growth remained below seasonal norms, comparable to only 2018 and 2020 levels from 2015 data.

• Regional outlook was mixed: major partners US, ASEAN, and EU saw negative year-on-year exports, while growth was boosted by emerging regions.

• Product-wise, home appliances and motor vehicles performed better, but high-tech items like those classified as "新三样" contributed negatively to exports.

• The 2022 December data aided this rebound through base effects, but external demand remains weak.

• Despite potential changes in the US economy, export support from key partners is limited, giving rise to ongoing challenges.

• Key risks include unexpected shifts in policies, institutional behaviors, and broader economic conditions.