【毕马威】2024年全球银行业首席执行官CEO展望报告_21页_833kb

KPMG Banking CEO Outlook 2024 Summary

Core Content

The KPMG 2024 Banking CEO Outlook provides insights into the current challenges, opportunities, and strategic priorities of banking and capital markets CEOs globally. The report is based on a survey of 120 CEOs from financial institutions across five continents, offering a comprehensive view of their outlook for the next three years.

Main Points

Economic Outlook and Business Confidence

• Confidence in Growth: 68% of CEOs are confident in the global economy's growth prospects, and 66% are confident in the growth of their industry and organization.
• Declining Optimism: Despite this confidence, there is a noticeable decline in optimism compared to 2023, with 66% of CEOs expressing confidence in their organization's growth.
• Earnings Outlook: Half of the CEOs anticipate earnings of 2.49% or less over the next three years, while 48% expect a high appetite for M&A.
• Pressure on Profitability: 74% of CEOs feel increased pressure to ensure long-term business prosperity.

Technology and AI

• Gen AI as Priority: 81% of CEOs consider generative AI (Gen AI) a top investment priority.
• Expected ROI: 65% of CEOs expect to see a return on Gen AI investments within 3–5 years.
• Implementation Challenges: Only 54% are ready to deploy safe integration with robust governance frameworks, and only 32% believe their data is ready for Gen AI integration.
• Top Benefits of Gen AI:
  • Fraud detection and cyber attack response (25%)
  • Faster data analysis (22%)
  • Increased efficiency and productivity (16%)

Cyber Security

• Growing Concern: 81% of CEOs believe cyber crime and insecurity will impact their organization's growth in the next three years.
• Readiness: 53% feel well-prepared for cyber threats, while 44% are neutral, indicating a need for stronger investments.
• AI-Driven Risks: 72% are increasing cyber security investments to address AI-related risks.
• Culture Matters: 77% say building a cyber security-focused culture is central to AI integration.

Workforce Dynamics

• Return to Office: 86% of CEOs expect their employees to return to the office, with only 10% favoring hybrid arrangements.
• Rewarding Office Attendance: 92% are likely to reward employees who return to the office with favorable assignments, raises, or promotions.
• Talent Retention: CEOs are focused on attracting and retaining top talent, especially in the context of a competitive recruitment environment.
• Employee Value Proposition (EVP): EVP is a top five operational priority for CEOs, emphasizing the need for flexible and supportive work environments.
• Knowledge Transfer: 92% of CEOs believe knowledge transfer between employees is the most impactful factor for the company.

ESG Focus and Strategies

• Strong Commitment: Despite economic uncertainty, there is a strong commitment to ESG investments.
• Expected Impact: 33% of CEOs expect ESG strategies to build customer relationships and brand reputation, while 31% see them shaping capital allocation and M&A.
• Return on Investment: 48% of CEOs expect a significant return on ESG investments in 3–5 years.
• Barriers to Net Zero: Top obstacles include lack of appropriate technology, skills, and the cost and complexity of decarbonization.
• Stakeholder Risks: CEOs are aware of the risks of not meeting ESG expectations, including customer attrition and higher cost of capital.
• Public Stance on ESG: 74% are willing to take a public stand on politically or socially contentious issues, and 83% are ready to divest parts of the business that damage the bank's image.

Key Recommendations

Pursuing Growth Amid Economic Uncertainty

• Be highly disciplined in risk assessment.
• Focus on both traditional and emerging risks.
• Adjust growth strategies based on customer concerns and geopolitical shifts.

Accelerating Innovation and Gen AI

• Ensure AI initiatives are grounded in ethical and human-centric principles.
• Encourage employee exploration with AI through training and guidelines.
• Prepare for large-scale AI-induced changes with internal training and change management programs.
• Embed a cyber security-focused culture across the organization.

Navigating Workforce Dynamics

• Develop a tailored and compelling employee value proposition.
• Intensify traditional training and explore innovative tactics for employee development.
• Facilitate knowledge transfer and build flexibility into training programs.
• Invest in community-based training to address skill shortages.

Refining ESG Strategies

• Continue investing in specialized technologies and talent to meet compliance and drive cultural change.
• Take bold actions to improve diversity in the C-suite and management.
• Build partnerships to enhance decarbonization efforts and support ESG goals.

Methodology

• Survey Participants: 120 banking and capital markets CEOs from 11 key markets (Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Spain, UK, and US).
• Revenue Threshold: All respondents have annual revenues over $500 million, with a third having over $10 billion in annual revenue.
• Subsectors: Commercial banking (27%) and capital markets/investment banking (22%) were the largest subsectors surveyed.
• Headquarters Representation: The US is the best-represented country, followed by India, the UK, China, Canada, and Germany.

Conclusion

The 2024 Banking CEO Outlook highlights a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the banking sector, driven by a focus on technology, talent, and ESG. CEOs are preparing for a dynamic environment by investing in Gen AI, enhancing cybersecurity, and adapting to changing workforce expectations. They are also emphasizing the importance of ESG as a long-term growth driver and a key component of their business strategies.