2025年社会韧性指数报告_35页_1mb

Allianz Social Resilience Index 2025 Summary

Core Content

The Allianz Social Resilience Index (SRI) 2025 evaluates the resilience of 171 economies on a scale from 0 to 100, focusing on economic fundamentals, social cohesion, institutional strength, and external strength. The index highlights the uneven and polarized nature of global resilience, emphasizing how structural inequalities persist and how external shocks, such as energy price increases, can test the resilience of different regions.

Main Points

• Global Resilience Trends:

  • The global SRI score increased slightly from 47.4 in 2024 to 47.9 in 2025.
  • The improvement is modest and masks significant regional disparities.
  • High-income economies continue to lead with an average score of 70.5, while Africa remains at the lowest with 34.4.

• Regional Performance:

  • Northern Europe leads the ranking with Finland (84.3), Denmark (83.8), and Iceland (81.4).
  • Germany (78.5), France (74.7), and UK (72.9) are strong performers among advanced economies.
  • China (52.5), India (46.8), Mexico (41.3), and Brazil (40.0) rank significantly lower.
  • Conflict-affected states like Lebanon (17.7) and South Sudan (11.8) are at the bottom.

• Country Movements:

  • Sri Lanka and India showed notable improvements (+12.7pts and +7.8pts respectively).
  • Brazil and Czech Republic experienced steep declines (-8.7pts and -6.9pts respectively).
  • A group of advanced economies (Czechia, Hungary, Italy, US, Japan) appears to be caught in a middle-SRI trap, characterized by material prosperity but also political polarization and policy volatility.

• Drivers of Social Resilience:

  • Economic fundamentals are the weakest pillar of resilience globally (43.3), influenced by global growth slowdown and labor market softness.
  • Social cohesion (49.2) is the primary differentiator between advanced and emerging economies.
  • Institutional strength (48.2) has shown limited upward momentum, while external strength (54.6) has become the broadest pillar of resilience.

• Long-Term and Medium-Term Trends:

  • Emerging Asia has shown the most consistent improvement across all time horizons.
  • The Middle East and Emerging Europe have seen long-term gains but weakened in the medium term due to geopolitical tensions and institutional pressures.
  • Latin America has improved over the medium and long term but remains stable in the short term.
  • High-income economies have consolidated their lead with minimal changes across all horizons.

• Energy Price Shock Impact:

  • The conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy price surge will test social resilience, particularly in Vietnam, Thailand, Morocco, Tunisia, and Malaysia, which are in the red cluster of low-to-mid resilience with high exposure.
  • Moderate-resilience countries like Chile, Egypt, Serbia, and South Korea are better positioned to cushion the impact of temporary energy shocks.
  • Europe is likely to be more affected than the US due to higher reliance on imported energy, though social spending may help mitigate some effects.

Key Insights

• Social resilience is a key determinant of macroeconomic performance, capital-market development, and sovereign risk.
• High resilience correlates with stronger real GDP per capita growth and deeper capital markets.
• SRI serves as both an early-warning system and reform compass for investors and policymakers.
• Declines in resilience can be reversed with institutional credibility, reduced polarization, and broader opportunities.
• Short-term fixes may lead to gradual erosion of resilience over time.
• Energy price shocks amplify existing structural vulnerabilities, rather than creating new ones, with weaker resilience economies being more vulnerable to price spikes and social pressures.

Conclusion

The Allianz Social Resilience Index 2025 underscores the persistent global inequalities in resilience and the increasing interplay between economic uncertainty and political shifts. The report highlights the importance of long-term structural reforms and policy predictability in enhancing resilience, especially in the face of external shocks such as the energy price surge. While some regions show progress, the middle-resilience trap remains a significant concern, particularly among advanced economies, where stagnation and policy volatility risk long-term instability and sovereign risk.