德银-中国-房地产行业-中国房地产预览：整体业绩强劲，派息良好-2019.2.18-27页_1mb

报告摘要

China Property Industry Summary - FY18F and Outlook

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the China property industry, focusing on the performance and outlook for major developers as of 18 February 2019. The report outlines the expected earnings growth, gross margin, dividend payout, and net gearing for various companies, along with their target prices and investment ratings. It also discusses the potential for mid-cap developers to outperform large-caps and highlights possible surprises in earnings and dividends.

Main Points

1. Overall FY18F Earnings Outlook

The report forecasts an average ~30% earnings growth for the developers it covers, driven by strong sales performance in the previous two years.
Gross margin is expected to remain high at ~33%, slightly up from 32.9% in FY17, due to the ASP rally in 2016-17.
The dividend payout ratio is expected to remain stable at ~6% yield.
Average borrowing cost is projected to rise to ~6%, up from 5.6% / 5.3% in 1H18/FY17, and net gearing is expected to increase due to tighter credit and slower sales in the second half of 2018.

2. Performance by Developer

Strong Earnings Growth (>30%): Sunac, Future Land, Logan, Evergrande, Aoyuan, and Gemdale.
Decent Earnings Growth (30-35%): Country Garden, Longfor, CIFI, China Jinmao, GZ R&F, and Times.
Weaker Earnings Growth: Vanke, CR Land, and others might report slightly weaker-than-consensus earnings growth.

3. Dividend and Gross Margin Surprises

Positive Surprises: Future Land and Longfor may raise their dividend payout ratios, and Logan might declare a special dividend.
Downside Surprises: Agile, Greentown, and Aoyuan could see an increase in their net gearing due to aggressive landbanking or slow sales.

4. Sales Growth Guidance

The report expects an overall >15% sales growth for developers in 2019, especially for mid and small-cap companies.
Mid-cap developers are expected to outperform large-caps, with growth guidance ranging from 5-15% for large-caps to ~25% for mid/small-caps.
Several developers are expected to achieve >30% sales growth, including Future Land, Logan, KWG, China Jinmao, Aoyuan, and China SCE.

5. Preference for Mid-Caps

Mid-cap developers are preferred over large-caps due to stronger growth prospects and cheaper valuations.
Recommended mid-cap developers include Sunac, Future Land, Shimao, Logan, CIFI, and KWG.
Key risks include credit/policy tightening, RMB depreciation, and appreciation.

Key Companies and Their Performance

Company	Ticker	Estimated Results Date	Overall Comment	Revenue Growth	Gross Margin (FY17/FY18F)	Core Profits Growth	Dividend	Net Gearing (FY17/FY18F)
Agile	3383 HK	20-Mar	Decent	~20% growth	40.1% / >40%	10-15% growth	Stable	96% / >100%
Aoyuan	3883 HK	18-Mar	Strong	>60% growth	26.7% / 27-28%	~55% growth	Stable	51% / 70-80%
China Jinmao	817 HK	19-Mar	Strong	~30% growth	32.3% / >35%	~30% growth	Stable	139% / >100%
China SCE	1966 HK	20-Mar	Fair	~10% growth	34.1% / 30-31%	10-15% growth	Stable	79% / 60+ %
CIFI	884 HK	17-Mar	Strong	20-25% growth	27.1% / ~30%	30-35% growth	Stable	70% / ~80%
CMSK	001979 CH	18-Mar	Decent	20-25% growth	35.3% / >35%	25-30% growth	Stable	66% / 70-80%
COLI	688 HK	20-Mar	Decent	~20% growth	32.9% / ~36%	10-15% growth	Stable	27% / 35-40%
Country Garden	2007 HK	18-Mar	Strong	>50% growth	25.9% / 25-26%	35-40% growth	Stable	57% / <60%
CR Land	1109 HK	26-Mar	Decent	25-30% growth	40.3% / >40%	20-30% growth	Stable	36% / 40-45%
Evergrande	3333 HK	26-Mar	Strong	~60% growth	36.1% / >35%	50-60% growth	Stable	184% / 130-140%
Future Land	1030 HK	8-Mar	Strong	~40% growth	33.3% / 33-34%	>60% growth	Higher	100% / <100%
Gemdale	600383 CH	11-Apr	Strong	35-40% growth	32.5% / >35%	40-50% growth	Stable	44% / <70%
Greentown	3900 HK	22-Mar	Weak	>20% growth	19.2% / 17-18%	Decline	Stable	75% / >100%
GZ R&F	2777 HK	20-Mar	Strong	35-40% growth	35.4% / 37-38%	>30% growth	Stable	180% / ~180%
KWG	1813 HK	25-Mar	Decent	20-30% growth	34.8% / 34-35%	~20% growth	Higher	68% / ~80%
Logan	3380 HK	19-Mar	Strong	>40% growth	34.4% / 34-35%	>50% growth	Higher	84% / <70%
Longfor	960 HK	25-Mar	Strong	25-30% growth	33.9% / 32-33%	>30% growth	Higher	48% / <60%
Shimao	813 HK	26-Mar	Strong	20-25% growth	30.4% / 31-32%	~30% growth	Stable	63% / <65%
Sino-Ocean	3377 HK	21-Mar	Decent	10-20% growth	24.5% / 24-25%	~20% growth	Stable	62% / ~70%
Sunac	1918 HK	29-Mar	Strong	>100% growth	20.7% / >25%	~40% growth	Stable	257% / ~160%
Times	1233 HK	12-Mar	Strong	35-40% growth	27.9% / 26-28%	~30% growth	Stable	58% / 60-70%
Vanke	2202 HK	26-Mar	Decent	>30% growth	32.3% / 32-33%	~20% growth	Stable	9% / <40%
Yuzhou	1628 HK	28-Mar	Decent	~25% growth	35.4% / 33-34%	20-25% growth	Stable	77% / 75-80%

Key Changes in Target Prices and Ratings

Company	Ticker	Target Price	Rating
Agile	3383 HK	10.47	Hold
Aoyuan	3883 HK	8.97	Buy
China Jinmao	817 HK	4.82	Buy
China SCE	1966 HK	3.77	Buy
CIFI	884 HK	5.57	Buy
CMSK	001979 CH	22.45	Buy
COLI	688 HK	32.65	Buy
Country Garden	2007 HK	17.19	Buy
CR Land	1109 HK	35.84	Buy
Evergrande	3333 HK	24.30	Hold
Future Land	1030 HK	9.57	Buy
Gemdale	600383 CH	7.89	Sell
Greentown	3900 HK	6.94	Hold
GZ R&F	2777 HK	18.09	Buy
KWG	1813 HK	11.69	Buy
Logan	3380 HK	12.30	Buy
Longfor	960 HK	25.25	Hold
Shimao	813 HK	23.40	Buy
Sino-Ocean	3377 HK	4.00	Hold
Sunac	1918 HK	41.71	Buy
Times	1233 HK	10.26	Buy
Vanke	2202 HK	31.31	Hold

Summary of Key Metrics

Metric	Value
Average Earnings Growth	~30%
Average Gross Margin	~33%
Average Borrowing Cost	~6%
Average Net Gearing	~68%
Expected Sales Growth	>15%
Mid-Cap Outperformance	Yes

Risks and Considerations

Credit and policy tightening may affect the sector.
RMB depreciation or appreciation could impact financial performance.
Some developers, such as Agile and Greentown, may experience higher net gearing due to aggressive landbanking or slow sales.
Vanke and KWG have had their earnings estimates lowered due to increased costs.

Conclusion

The China property sector is expected to deliver strong FY18F results, with mid-cap developers showing better growth prospects than large-caps. The report highlights the potential for positive surprises in dividends and gross margins, while also noting the risks associated with credit and policy changes. Investors are advised to consider mid-cap stocks for better returns, given their stronger growth and more favorable valuations.

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