世界银行-南亚宏观贫困展望：发展中国家的国别分析和预测，2023年年会（英）-2023-22页_1mb

Analysis of the Macro Poverty Outlook 2023 for South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka) reveals key economic and poverty trends based on World Bank data.

Afghanistan: The economy contracted significantly after the Taliban takeover, shrinking by 20.7% in 2021 and 6.2% in 2022. Poverty, now affecting 48.3% of the population, remains severe, and high unemployment persists. Inflation dropped sharply due to supply chain easing and aid support. Outlook is fragile with risks of recession if aid decreases, and challenges include climate vulnerability and inadequate social protection.

Bangladesh: Real GDP growth averaged 6.6% before the pandemic but slowed to 7.2% in FY23. Poverty declined from 51.6% in 2016 to 45.1% in 2022, with inequality stable. Challenges include financial sector vulnerabilities and the need for export diversification ahead of LDC graduation. Growth is expected to moderate to 5.6% in FY24, with risks from inflation and policy uncertainty.

Bhutan: Growth rebounded to 4.6% in FY23, driven by tourism recovery, but extreme poverty was nearly eliminated, though spatial inequality and high youth unemployment (29%) are concerns. Challenges include fiscal deficits and human capital loss due to emigration. Outlook calls for moderate growth around 4% with risks from elections and debt sustainability.

India: Growth decelerated to 7.2% in FY23 and is forecasted to slow to 6.3% in FY24. Extreme poverty remains around 11%, and moderate poverty at 45%. Structural reforms are needed for human capital, business environment, and job creation, amid risks from global slowdown and inflation.

Maldives: Tourism-led growth accelerated to 13.9% in 2022, reducing poverty rates below 2019 levels. However, heavy reliance on imports and subsidies create fiscal risks, with challenges from climate vulnerability and subsidies. Outlook predicts 5.6% growth supported by tourism, but external shocks could impact stability.

Nepal: Growth slowed to 1.9% in FY23 due to policy tightening and import restrictions, potentially increasing poverty vulnerability. Revenue decline and fiscal deficits widened, but reforms and aid support are key. Growth is expected rebound to 3.9% in FY24, with risks from monsoon variability and political uncertainty.

Pakistan: The economy shrank by 0.6% in FY23 amid floods, high inflation (29.2%), and policy challenges. Poverty increased to 39.4% as jobs and purchasing power deteriorated. Outlook is grim with growth projected at 1.7% in FY24, hindered by debt and external risks, unless reforms and aid support are secured.

Sri Lanka: A deep economic crisis led to 7.8% GDP contraction in 2022, doubling poverty rates. Debt restructuring and reforms are underway, with inflation easing to single digits. Growth is expected to start at -3.8% in 2023, but recovery is fragile with risks of recurring crises.

Overall, South Asian countries face mixed economic outlooks, with aid dependency, inflation, and structural challenges slowing poverty reduction.