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Asia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the Asian equity markets, focusing on performance, valuations, and sectoral trends as of May 19, 2025. It outlines the daily and year-to-date (YTD) returns of key indices and markets, along with sectoral performance, market breadth, and macroeconomic conditions.

Market Performance

• MXAPJ Index:

  • Daily USD price return: -0.5%
  • 2025 YTD USD price return: 7.3%
  • 2024 USD price return: 7.7%
  • 2025 FX Impact: 2.1%

• Market Performance (YTD):

  • Outperformers: Singapore and China markets led, while Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia dragged down performance.
  • Underperformers: Taiwan and Korea markets underperformed.
  • Sectoral Performance:
    • Leading sectors: Utilities and Health Care
    • Lagging sectors: Info Tech and Materials

• MSCI Japan:

  • Daily USD price return: +0.5%
  • 2025 YTD USD price return: 5.7%

Market Valuations

• Valuation Metrics:

  • MXAPJ:
    • Current fPE: 13.7
    • Current tPB: 1.8
  • MXCN (China):
    • Current fPE: 11.2
    • Current tPB: 1.5
  • CSI300 (China A):
    • Current fPE: 13.0
    • Current tPB: 1.6
  • TOPIX (Japan):
    • Current fPE: 13.4
    • Current tPB: 1.3

• GS Base Case Projections:

  • 3M target: 610 (+0%)
  • 6M target: 630 (+3%)
  • 12M target: 660 (+8%)
  • Target fPE: 13.4 (-2%)

• Equity/Bond Yield Gap:

  • The gap for MXAPJ is around 290 basis points, indicating expensive equity valuations relative to bonds.

• Asian vs. US Valuations:

  • Asian equities are still trading at a large valuation discount relative to the US, but are in line with European valuations.

Strategy Baskets Performance

• Daily Top 10 Outperformers:

  • GSCNRMBL: RMB Depreciation Losers (+1.0%)
  • GSSZMSDF: Defensives (AeJ) (+0.4%)
  • GSSZEVMT: APJ Environ. & Renewables (+0.4%)
  • GSINMCMB: India Mid-cap Multibaggers (+0.4%)
  • GSCBINRF: GS India Retail Favs (+0.2%)
  • GSINLCCP: India L-Cap Compounders (+0.2%)
  • GSSZMSFA: AeJ Asset Sensitive (+0.2%)
  • GSSZAPEU: EU exposed AEJ stocks (+0.1%)
  • GSCNRMBW: RMB Depreciation Winners (+0.1%)
  • GSSZWBAL: APJ Weak Balance Sheet (+0.0%)

• Daily Top 10 Underperformers:

  • GSSZAIHW: AEJ AIGC Hardware (-2.1%)
  • GSSZAI SM: AEJ AIGC Semiconductor (-2.5%)
  • GSSZAPPL: Taiwan Apple Suppliers (-2.1%)
  • GSSZAIHW: AEJ AIGC Hardware (-2.1%)
  • GSSZAPCN: AeJ China Sales Exposure (-1.6%)
  • GSSZUSEX: AeJ US Exporters (-2.0%)
  • GSSZSHOR: AeJ Most Shorted Stocks (-1.6%)
  • GSSZMSGC: Global Cyclicals (AeJ) (-1.6%)
  • GSSZAPUS: APJ US Sales Exposure (-1.5%)
  • GSSZAIAP: AEJ AIGC Applications (-1.1%)

• Month-to-Date Outperformers:

  • GSSZAIHW: AEJ AIGC Hardware (+14.7%)
  • GSSZUSEX: AeJ US Exporters (+10.3%)
  • GSSZAPUS: APJ US Sales Exposure (+9.9%)
  • GSSZAI SM: AEJ AIGC Semiconductor (+8.3%)
  • GSSZPOWE: AeJ Power & Electricity (+8.1%)
  • GSSZMSGC: Global Cyclicals (AeJ) (+7.8%)
  • GSSZGROW: AeJ High Growth (+7.7%)
  • GSCBINRF: GS India Retail Favs (+7.7%)
  • GSSZGARP: APJ GARP (+7.5%)
  • GSSZSBAL: APJ Strong Balance Sheet (+7.3%)

Macro Environment and Financial Conditions

• Financial Conditions:

  • The document includes exhibits on financial conditions across regions and global financial conditions by market classification, indicating varied conditions across the Asia-Pacific region.

• Currency Performance (YTD):

  • Exhibit 15 provides insights into the YTD performance of major Asian currencies against the USD.

• Long Rates:

  • Asian long rates have varied in 2025, as indicated in Exhibit 16.

Earnings Revisions

• MXAPJ Earnings Revisions (2024-26E):

  • Exhibit 17 shows the earnings revisions for the period from the start of 2024 to 2026.

• MXAPJ 2025E Earnings Revisions by Sector:

  • Exhibit 19 provides recent earnings revisions for 2025E by sector.

• MSCI China Earnings Revisions by Sector (2025E):

  • Exhibit 20 outlines sector-specific earnings revisions for MSCI China.

Regulatory and Disclosure Information

• Analysts: Timothy Moe, CFA; Sunil Koul; Kinger Lau, CFA; Alvin So, CFA; John Kwon; Amorita Goel, CFA; Mark Hung

• Contact Information:

  • Timothy Moe: +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com
  • Sunil Koul: +44(20)7051-4931 | sunil.koul@gs.com
  • Kinger Lau: +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com
  • Alvin So: +852-2978-1585 | alvin.so@gs.com
  • John Kwon: +65-6654-6337 | jongmin.kwon@gs.com
  • Amorita Goel: +65-6654-5445 | amorita.goel@gs.com
  • Mark Hung: +852-3465-4266 | mark.hung@gs.com

• Disclosures:

  • All MSCI data is the exclusive property of MSCI, Inc.
  • The report includes compliance with regulatory requirements in various jurisdictions, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, and the United Kingdom.

Key Takeaways

• The MXAPJ Index experienced a daily drop of 0.5%.
• Singapore and China led the performance in 2025, while Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia dragged it down.
• Utilities and Health Care were the leading sectors, and Info Tech and Materials lagged.
• MSCI Japan rose 0.5% on the day.
• Asian equities are still at a valuation discount relative to the US, but are in line with European valuations.
• The equity/bond yield gap for MXAPJ is around 290bp, suggesting relatively expensive equity valuations.
• Market breadth is a key factor, with various baskets showing both outperformers and underperformers.
• Earnings revisions for 2025E show mixed trends across sectors.
• The document includes regulatory disclosures and compliance information, emphasizing the independence and integrity of the research.

This summary provides a concise overview of the key insights and data points from the document, highlighting the performance and valuation dynamics of the Asia-Pacific equity markets.