2025-06-11-花旗集团-印度经济_5月消费者物价指数降至3_以下_6月可能降至2.5_以下_13页_252kb
报告摘要
- Inflation Status: India's headline inflation fell to a 6-year low of 2.82% YoY in May 2025, 0.2 percentage points below Citi/Consensus forecasts, driven by subdued vegetable and food inflation.
- Key Factors: Vegetable CPI increased only 0.1% MoM; food ex-vegetable inflation was at an 8-month low of 4.0% YoY. Higher gold prices contributed to core inflation reaching 4.2% YoY, while core CPI ex-petrol, diesel, and gold remained low at 3.5% YoY.
- Forecasts: Citi anticipates headline inflation to decline to 2.2% YoY in June 2025 due to below-seasonal vegetable price increases and favorable base effects. For FY26, headline inflation is revised down to 3.5% YoY.
- Monetary Policy Outlook: Rate cuts in August or October are unlikely, as RBI's neutral rate estimate and forward-looking inflation risks, including base effects, remain uncertain. Citi sees excess雨水 impacting food inflation minimally but requires better monsoon clarity before easing actions.
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