20260813-招银国际-金蝶国际-00268.HK-AI-native_revenue_ramping_up_5页_1mb

Kingdee (268 HK) Summary

Core Content

Kingdee (268 HK) reported its first-half 2026 (1H26) results, showing revenue growth of 13.6% YoY to RMB3.63bn, in line with both the analyst's forecast and Bloomberg consensus. The company's net profit for 1H26 was RMB54.5mn, a significant improvement from the RMB97.7mn loss in 1H25, and within the previously indicated profit alert range of RMB40mn-60mn. The company emphasized strong momentum in its AI-native products, which are contributing to its financial performance and future growth potential.

Key Highlights

• AI-native Product Growth:

  • Revenue from AI-native products reached RMB296mn, up 189% YoY.
  • Contract value of AI-native products reached RMB605mn, up 159% YoY and 47% quarter-over-quarter.
  • Lingee, an AI-native product, has signed 26 customers and deployed over 40 agents across key business functions, including finance, supply chain, procurement, and manufacturing.
  • Management targets to sign 10,000 customers for Lingee by year-end.

• Cloud Revenue:

  • Cloud revenue grew by 16.6% YoY to RMB3.1bn, representing 86.0% of total revenue, an increase of 2.3ppts YoY.
  • Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) rose 18.3% YoY to RMB4.4bn, supported by growth in new signings driven by the Kingdee AI Suite and robust demand from selected industries.
  • Net dollar retention for Cloud Constellation/Galaxy/Stellar was 101%/96%/94% in 1H26, compared to 108%/94%/93% in 1H25.

• Operating Efficiency:

  • Gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 2.1ppts YoY to 67.7%.
  • Operating loss margin narrowed to -1.4% in 1H26 from -9.1% in 1H25.
  • Management provided 2026 guidance:
    • Double-digit YoY group revenue growth, with AI-native product revenue exceeding RMB1bn.
    • Adjusted net profit margin (NPM) of 7%, compared to 3.3% in 2025.
    • Operating cash flow (OCF) growth of over 20% YoY.

Forecast and Valuation

• Revised Revenue Forecasts:

  • The analyst raised 2026-2028E revenue forecasts by 2-8%, with revised forecasts now 2% above consensus for each year.
  • Revenue growth is forecasted to accelerate to 15.8% YoY in 2026E, 15.8% in 2027E, and 13.1% in 2028E.

• Target Price and Valuation:

  • Target Price (TP) is maintained at HK$15.1, based on a 5.2x 2026E EV/sales multiple, in line with the company's three-year mean (previously 5.4x).
  • The analyst remains positive on Kingdee, believing that accelerating AI monetization and a solid margin expansion trajectory will support earnings growth and valuation rerating.

Financial Performance (Earnings Summary)

Financial Summary (Key Metrics)

Income Statement

Profitability

Valuation

Risk Factors

• Slower-than-expected revenue growth
• Slower-than-expected margin expansion
• More intensified-than-expected industry competition

Analyst Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months
• NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Stock Data

Share Performance

Shareholding Structure

Analyst Certification

The research analyst certifies that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views and that no part of their compensation is related to the specific views expressed. The analyst also confirms compliance with regulatory requirements regarding trading and financial interests in the covered securities.

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