战略与国际研究中心-FYSA_-For-Your-Situational-Awareness-l-Issue-2_4页_826kb

报告摘要

FYSA Summary: Issue 2 | December 2013

Core Content

FYSA (For Your Situational Awareness) is a monthly electronic publication by the International Security Program (ISP) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The December 2013 issue highlights key developments in defense spending, nuclear strategy, and counterterrorism efforts, as well as economic opportunities in Pakistan.

Key Events and Initiatives

Select Upcoming Events

DOD CONTRACT TRENDS REPORT RELEASE: Scheduled for December 19, 2013, from 9:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. at CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW.

Select Recent Events

Federated Defense Project Launch: A discussion featuring Richard Armitage and Ambassador Peter Westmacott, moderated by Dr. John Hamre, followed by a panel with Kathleen Hicks and David Berteau.
New Nuclear Suppliers: A moderated discussion by Sharon Squassoni on the Proliferation Prevention Program's findings from international workshops on responsible nuclear supply.
PONI 2013 Fall Conference: Presentations by rising professionals and keynote addresses by General Robert Kehler and Vice Admiral Terry Joseph Benedict.

Defense Spending Trends

David J. Berteau from CSIS discusses the impact of the fourth defense spending drop since 1950 on the defense industry. Key findings include:

Market Distribution Changes: The top 20 defense contractors have seen a 10.2% decline in prime contract obligations, while the top 20 R&D contractors have experienced a steeper 25.1% decline. In contrast, the top 20 DoD Services contractors have only seen an 8.9% decline, despite a 13.2% overall drop.
Products Sector Resilience: The top 20 contractors for Products (including weapon systems) have only declined by 2.0% since 2009, indicating a relative shield from the drawdown.
Increased Competition: Some contracts have seen more bidders, suggesting increased competition, but the "Big 6" firms have increased their share of sole-source Service contracts, contrary to expectations.

Nuclear Strategy and Policy

Clark A. Murdock highlights the need for a national debate on nuclear strategy. Key points include:

The U.S. has neglected nuclear strategy since the Cold War, maintaining a smaller force than needed for current and future security challenges.
Geopolitical shifts, including new nuclear states, regional security dynamics, and adversary modernization, require a rethinking of Cold War-era deterrence concepts.
The CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) aims to reinvigorate scholarship on nuclear strategy through an online journal, modeled after the Small Wars Journal, to encourage diverse perspectives outside government circles.
The journal will support the upcoming 2017-2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) by building an intellectual foundation for strategic thinking.

Investment Opportunities in Pakistan

Sadiqa Hameed discusses the potential for U.S. investment in Pakistan, despite its challenges, focusing on the following reasons:

Demographic Dividend: Pakistan's high youth-to-retiree ratio offers economic potential if investments can create jobs.
Consumer Demand Growth: Despite underemployment, consumer spending in Pakistan has grown at 7.5% annually since 2007.
Low Market Correlation: Pakistan's market is less correlated with U.S. and European markets than with Africa, making it an attractive diversification option.
SME Growth: SMEs in Pakistan are growing rapidly, with strong community ties and resilience to security threats.

Counterterrorism and Soft Targets

Meredith Boyle addresses the growing threat of attacks on civilian "soft targets" such as malls and public events. Key points include:

The Boston Marathon bombing and Nairobi mall attack show terrorists' interest in targeting unarmored facilities.
Al Qaeda is shifting toward small-scale, simple attacks by homegrown supporters, rather than large-scale operations.
Security measures to protect soft targets raise significant economic and societal costs, including privacy concerns and public discomfort.
Balancing security, economic, and privacy requirements remains a critical challenge for policymakers and the public.

In the News

Kathleen Hicks emphasizes the need for a strategic approach to counterterrorism in the National Security Strategy.
Sam Brannen notes the progress of autonomous vehicle technology but highlights the distance before it is battle-ready.
Tom Moore doubts the Syrian regime's ability to secure and transport chemical weapons during ongoing conflict.

About FYSA

FYSA is a nonpartisan, nonproprietary publication by CSIS, providing insights on international security and defense policy. All views and conclusions expressed are those of the authors.

Recent Publications

The Federated Defense Project Concept Paper: Overview of a new CSIS initiative examining U.S. and common security goals.
New Nuclear Suppliers: Report on workshops encouraging responsible nuclear supply by China, the Republic of Korea, and India.
Colombia: Peace and Stability in the Post-Conflict Era: Executive summary with recommendations for the Colombian government and U.S. support.