2025-06-13-Jefferies-办公用纸统计_日本4月出货量略有回升_12页_251kb

Japan Precision Equipment Equity Research Summary

OA Paper Shipment Trends (April 2025)

• Japan: April shipment volume increased YoY by 3.3% (to 86,933 tons), reaching 85% of 2019 levels. Cumulative Jan-Apr 2025 shipments are 78% of 2019's volume (-7.3% YoY).
• US: April shipments fell 9% YoY, at 62% of 2019's level. 2024 annual shipment volume increased by 1% YoY but remains at 70% vs. 2019.
• Europe: December shipments slight -1% YoY (315,000 tons), at 75% of 2019. Europe recorded three consecutive monthly declines. Cumulative 2024 volume is 4.39mn tons (+15% YoY), 74% vs. 2019.

Non-Hardware Sales (Jan-Mar 2025)

• Canon: -5% YoY, 83% vs. 2019.
• Ricoh: -4% YoY, 82% vs. 2019.
• Konica Minolta: -3% YoY, 87% vs. 2019.
• Average decline: 4% YoY, continuing a downturn that persists into the eighth straight quarter, at 80% vs. 2019.

Market Outlook

• Downward Trend: Expect continued YoY decline in non-hardware sales through the medium term due to ongoing shift towards printless practices.
• Hardware Sales: Modest YoY decline is expected to persist in 2025, following a temporary boost due to postponed replacement demands.

US-Japan Trade Tarrifs

• Trump Tariffs (April 2025): 24% tariffs on Japanese goods; exports from Southeast Asia (major production base location previously) to the US now face high tariffs, posing significant margin pressure.

Corporate Strategies

• Ricoh: Focus on digital services and cost reduction through R&D & SCM reforms, aiming to reduce fixed costs by ¥60bn.
• Konica Minolta: Implementing "One Rate" billing system, remote maintenance to restrict earnings decline, and significant workforce reduction.
• Canon: Pursuing production and sales innovations to improve profitability.

Analyst Recommendations

• Canon: HOLD (JP¥4,500)
  • Risks: Business slowdown, USDJPY appreciation, office equipment contraction.
• Fujifilm: BUY (JP¥4,300)
• Konica Minolta: BUY (JP¥650)
• Ricoh: HOLD (JP¥1,500)

Valuation & Notes

• Canon: Target based on 14.5x P/E in FY12/25, risk factors include COVID impact on legacy businesses.
• Competitive Dynamics: Increasingly complex corporate alliances form in response to global challenges.

Final Disclaimer

This report contains investment restrictions, disclosures about analyst independence, and information regarding affiliate registration requirements for non-U.S. analysts.