2017中国无法支付的账单（英文版）_54页_2mb

The Bill China Cannot Afford: Summary

Core Content

This report outlines the significant health, economic, and social costs of tobacco use in China, emphasizing that these costs are unsustainable and preventable. It highlights the urgent need for stronger tobacco control policies to align with national and international development goals, particularly the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Healthy China initiative.

Key Information

• Tobacco Use in China:

  • China is the world's largest producer and consumer of tobacco.
  • In 2014, 44% of the world’s cigarettes were consumed in China, with over 315 million smokers, representing 28% of the adult population and more than half of all men.
  • Smoking rates among women are low, but there is a concern about future increases due to economic development.
  • The average smoker in China consumes around 22 cigarettes per day, a 50% increase since 1980.
  • Over one-third of young Chinese men are at risk of dying from tobacco-related illnesses.

• Health Impact:

  • Tobacco use is a major driver of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which account for 87% of all deaths in China.
  • In 2012, over 8.6 million deaths in China were attributed to NCDs, with 36% being premature (under 70 years of age).
  • In 2014, tobacco-related illnesses caused approximately 1.5% of China’s total health care expenditure.
  • Without significant intervention, tobacco-related deaths are projected to rise to 2 million annually by 2030 and 3 million by 2050.
  • Over 200 million lives in China are expected to be lost to tobacco-related diseases this century.

• Economic Costs:

  • In 2014, the total economic cost of tobacco use in China was estimated at ¥350 billion (US$ 57 billion), which is 0.55% of the country’s GDP.
  • The direct cost of treating tobacco-related illnesses was around ¥53 billion (US$ 9 billion), while indirect costs (lost productivity) amounted to ¥297 billion (US$ 48 billion).
  • These costs have increased dramatically since 2000, with a 1000% rise in total economic costs.
  • Tobacco use is financially draining for families, especially low-income ones, and is a direct threat to poverty eradication goals.

• Social Costs:

  • Tobacco use exacerbates inequality and poverty, particularly by diverting funds from essential needs like food, education, and healthcare.
  • The cost of treating tobacco-related illnesses can push poor families into deeper poverty.
  • The loss of a primary income earner due to tobacco-related illness can have long-term financial consequences for families, especially in a country where dependents may include parents and in-laws.

Main Views

• Tobacco is a major threat to China's health and development, with its use leading to preventable deaths and deepening social and economic inequalities.
• China's tobacco industry is a major contributor to government revenue, but this economic benefit comes at a steep human and societal cost.
• Strong tobacco control policies are not only essential for public health but also beneficial for the economy and society, particularly for the poor.
• Tobacco control can lead to substantial economic returns, such as increased government revenue and reduced healthcare costs.
• Implementation of WHO FCTC is crucial to reducing tobacco use and achieving the goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Policy Recommendations

• Adopt a comprehensive national smoke-free law that includes all public places, building on the success of local laws in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.
• Significantly increase tobacco taxes and ensure future increases are institutionalized to reduce affordability.
• Implement a comprehensive ban on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship.
• Scale up mass media campaigns to raise awareness about the dangers of tobacco use.
• Introduce graphic health warnings on at least 50% of tobacco packaging.
• Expand support for smokers to quit, especially among vulnerable groups.
• Eliminate tobacco industry interference in policymaking, in line with WHO FCTC guidelines.
• Establish a new body under the State Council to oversee the implementation of WHO FCTC and tobacco control policies, with the National Health and Family Planning Commission as the lead ministry.

Conclusion

• Tobacco use is not only harmful to health but also imposes a massive economic and social burden on China.
• Strong tobacco control policies are essential for achieving a healthier, more equitable, and sustainable future.
• China cannot afford the costs of its tobacco epidemic, both in terms of human lives and economic stability.
• The report underscores that tobacco control is a win-win strategy for health, poverty reduction, and economic development, and is aligned with the goals of the Healthy China Plan 2030 and the SDGs.

Key Figures

• Annual deaths from tobacco use: ~1 million in 2014, expected to rise to 2 million by 2030 and 3 million by 2050.
• Total economic cost of tobacco in 2014: ¥350 billion (US$ 57 billion), or 0.55% of GDP.
• Estimated cost in 2008: ¥217 billion (US$ 33 billion).
• Potential benefits of a 50% price increase: ~20 million lives saved over 50 years, ~8 million people saved from poverty, and ~13 million people protected from catastrophic medical costs.
• Tobacco industry revenue in 2015: ¥1.1 trillion (US$ 170 billion), or ~7% of total central government revenue.

Summary of Benefits

• Health benefits: Reduced mortality, improved public health, and lower incidence of NCDs.
• Economic benefits: Increased government revenue, reduced healthcare expenditure, and higher productivity.
• Social benefits: Reduced inequality, poverty alleviation, and improved quality of life for vulnerable populations.

Final Statement

China is at a critical juncture where tobacco control is not just a health issue but a key component of economic and social development. The report advocates for drastic and immediate action to implement stronger tobacco control policies to ensure that China fulfills its vision of a healthy, prosperous, and equitable society.