2025-05-28-Jefferies-V和MA美国交易量与个人消费支出（PCE）对比_美国现金到信用卡的顺风因素仍然存在_14页_1mb

Summary of V & MA US Volume vs. PCE Analysis

Core Content

This report analyzes the performance of Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) US payment volume growth in relation to Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for 1Q25. The key focus is on the secular tailwind from the cash-to-card conversion trend and its impact on the growth multiples between V & MA and PCE.

Main Points

• Growth Multiple:
  The reported growth multiple of V & MA US volume relative to PCE in 1Q25 was 1.3x, down from 1.4x in 4Q24.
  After adjusting for inflation in under-carded categories (Housing/Utilities, Healthcare) and fuel prices, the adjusted multiple rose to 1.6x, indicating that the cash-to-card tailwind remains present, albeit weaker than historical levels.

• Volume Growth Trends:

  • Combined US volume growth for V & MA slowed to +6.3% Y/Y in 1Q25, compared to +7.9% Y/Y in 4Q24 (excluding Leap Year and Easter effects).
  • PCE growth remained steady at ~5.7% Y/Y, above the historical average of ~4% from 2015-2019.

• Category Mix of PCE Growth:

  • The contribution of traditionally carded categories to PCE growth increased in 1Q25 to ~61%, up from ~47% in 1Q24.
  • Non-carded categories, particularly Housing/Utilities and Healthcare, continued to skew PCE growth higher due to above-normal inflation, contributing ~40% of PCE growth in 1Q25.

• Adjustments for Inflation and Fuel Prices:

  • Adjusting for elevated inflation in non-carded categories reduced PCE growth by ~1.0ppt, leading to a 4.9% Y/Y adjusted PCE growth.
  • Adjusting for fuel price impacts increased V & MA US volume growth to ~7.9% Y/Y, compared to ~6.3% reported.
  • These adjustments result in a 1.6x multiple between V & MA US volume and PCE, compared to 1.3x on reported numbers.

• Spread Compression:

  • The spread between V & MA US volume and PCE growth compressed only ~0.1x from 4Q to 1Q, indicating a modest slowdown in the cash-to-card tailwind.
  • The analysts view this as an encouraging sign, suggesting the secular trend still has modest runway.

• Future Outlook:

  • The improving US volume trends in April are expected to support a wider spread in 2Q, similar to the effect seen in 4Q due to holiday and discretionary spending.
  • The cash-to-card conversion trend is still benefiting V & MA, though the magnitude is expected to moderate.

Key Information

• Non-carded Categories:

  • Housing/Utilities contributed ~19% of PCE growth in 1Q25, above its historical average of ~15%.
  • Healthcare contributed ~20% of PCE growth, slightly above its historical average.
  • These categories have been the main drivers of the ~40% excess growth in PCE relative to historical levels.

• Carded Categories:

  • Goods contributed ~22% of PCE growth in 1Q25, below its historical average of ~26%.
  • Services contributed ~78% of PCE growth, up from ~74% historically.

• Fuel Price Impact:

  • V & MA have ~5-6% of US payment volume attributed to fuel, compared to ~2% in PCE.
  • Lower fuel prices acted as a ~20bps headwind to V & MA US payment volume growth in 1Q25.

• Valuation and Recommendations:

  • Mastercard (MA): Price target of $574.55 (BUY) based on ~35x CY26E EPS.
  • Visa (V): Price target of $359.30 (BUY) based on ~32x FY26E EPS.
  • Risks include macroeconomic conditions, consumer spending trends, regulatory changes, and competition.

Analysts and Contact Information

• Trevor Williams – Equity Analyst

  • Email: twilliams3@jefferies.com
  • Phone: (415) 229-1546

• Alexander Glockner – Equity Associate

  • Email: aglockner@jefferies.com
  • Phone: +1 (415) 229-8729

• Ryan Levine – Equity Associate

  • Email: rlevine4@jefferies.com
  • Phone: +1 (415) 229-1512

Investment Ratings and Methodology

• Ratings:

  • Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more over 12 months.
  • Hold: Expected total return of ±15%.
  • Underperform: Expected total return of 10% or less.
  • NR (No Rating): Rating temporarily suspended.
  • CS (Coverage Suspended): Coverage has been suspended.
  • NC (Not Covered): Not covered by Jefferies.
  • Restricted: Prohibits certain communications.
  • Monitor: No financial projections provided.

• Valuation Methodology:

  • Ratings and price targets are based on factors such as market capitalization, growth/value, volatility, and expected total return.
  • Techniques used include DCF, EBITDA, EPS, EV/EBITDA, P/E, and others.

Conclusion

While the cash-to-card tailwind has moderated, it remains a modest contributor to V & MA's growth. The adjusted growth multiple of 1.6x in 1Q25 indicates that the trend is still favorable, though not as strong as historical levels. The normalization of PCE category mix and improving volume trends in April suggest a potential for wider spreads in 2Q. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term growth potential of both V and MA, with BUY ratings and price targets in place.