20170918-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_20页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 18 September 2017
Core Content Overview
This document provides an analysis of economic and sector updates across several Asian markets, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It also includes key indices, top picks, corporate events, and market impact assessments for various industries.
China: Economic & Monetary Policy Update
Monetary Policy
- Liquidity Growth: Slowed in August to 8.9% yoy for M2 and 14.0% yoy for M1, down from previous months.
- New Loans: Exceeded expectations, reaching Rmb1.1t in August (Rmb900b expected), driven by corporate and mortgage lending.
- Tightening Bias: The PBoC is expected to maintain a cautious tightening stance ahead of the 19th National Congress to avoid disrupting the real economy.
- TSF Growth: Total social financing (TSF) increased to Rmb1.48t in August, mainly due to bank loans, with a net reduction in entrusted loans.
Coal Sector
- Coal Prices: Resilient in the near term due to slower production, tightened inspections, and the Daqin Railway maintenance.
- Production: Dropped 1.2% mom in August, with 8M17 output growing 5.4% yoy to 2.3b tonnes.
- Imports: Rose 29.9% mom in August but are expected to decline gradually due to policy restrictions and market oversupply.
- Capacity Cuts: China has cut 420m tonnes of coal capacity since 2016, with an 85% completion of its 2017 target. The goal is to reduce coal capacity by 800m tonnes by 2020.
- Market Outlook: Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for the coal sector, with a focus on Shenhua (BUY, Target: HK$25.14) due to its strong balance sheet and cost control.
China: Internet & E-commerce Sector
Sector Growth
- Online Retail Growth: Accelerated to 35-38% in Jul-Aug 17 and 34% yoy in 8M17, up from 26% yoy in 2016.
- E-commerce GMV: Continued to grow, with tangible goods GMV reaching Rmb3.2t in 8M17 (up 30.9% yoy) and service/virtue goods GMV at Rmb1t (up 53% yoy).
- User Growth: Online food delivery users increased by nearly 60% yoy to 295.3m as of end-1H17.
Stock Picks
- Alibaba (BABA US): Maintain BUY with a target price of US$205.00.
- JD.com (JD US): Maintain BUY with a target price of US$54.00.
Market Outlook
- Offline Expansion: E-commerce companies are expanding into offline markets, which is expected to boost penetration in underpenetrated categories and lower-tier cities.
- JD.com Strategy: Expanding its ecosystem into variety spaces and property, with plans to digitalise housing transactions.
Indonesia: Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI IJ/BUY/Rp364/Target: Rp490)
- Key Catalysts: Sale of office buildings and major infrastructure projects in Serpong are expected to drive growth.
- Recommendation: BUY with a target price of Rp490, based on strong fundamentals and potential for capital appreciation.
Malaysia: Building Materials Sector
- Steel Prices: Strengthened further in August, exceeding the peak in 1Q17.
- Earnings Outlook: Expected to remain strong in 2H17 due to sustained steel price increases.
- Recommendation: Maintain OVERWEIGHT, with a BUY recommendation on Ann Joo.
Singapore: Property Sector
- Sector Outlook: The next wave of growth is anticipated, with potential for increased activity and investment.
- Corporate Events: Analyst marketing events in the Singapore Telcos and Banking sectors.
Thailand: Electricity Generating (EGCO TB/HOLD/Bt233.00/Target: Bt220.00)
- New SPP Plants: Expected to start operations in October, which may impact the sector positively.
- Recommendation: HOLD, with a target price of Bt220.00.
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 22268.3 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 12.7 |
| S&P 500 | 2500.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 11.7 |
| FTSE 100 | 7215.5 | -1.1 | -2.2 | -1.5 | 1.0 |
| AS30 | 5755.8 | -0.7 | 0.3 | -0.7 | 0.6 |
| CSI 300 | 3831.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 15.7 |
| FSSTI | 3209.6 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -1.3 | 11.4 |
| HSCEI | 11067.6 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 3.5 | 17.8 |
| HSI | 27807.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 26.4 |
| JCI | 5872.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 10.9 |
| KLCI | 1786.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 8.8 |
| KOSPI | 2386.1 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 17.7 |
| Nikkei 225 | 19909.5 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 4.2 |
| SET | 1660.5 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 7.6 |
| TWSE | 10580.4 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 2.5 | 14.3 |
| BDI | 1385 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 44.1 |
| CPO | 2871 | 1.1 | 5.0 | 8.7 | -10.3 |
| Brent | 56 | -0.2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | -2.3 |
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSPC | 1093 HK | 12.14 | 15.24 | BUY |
| Hengan Intl | 1044 HK | 69.95 | 76.00 | BUY |
| Ace Hardware | ACES IJ | 1,085.00 | 1,300.00 | BUY |
| Waskita Kanya | WSKT IJ | 1,815.00 | 3,000.00 | BUY |
| Ekovest | EKO MK | 1.10 | 1.45 | BUY |
| V.S. Industry | VSI MK | 2.60 | 3.10 | BUY |
| OCBC | OCBC SP | 10.95 | 13.38 | BUY |
| Siam Cement | SCC TB | 504.00 | 600.00 | BUY |
Corporate Events
| Event Name | Venue | Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Roadshow with Cahya Mata Sarawak | Hong Kong | 18 Sep |
| Analyst Marketing on Singapore Telcos and Banking | Kuala Lumpur | 18-19 Sep |
| Roadshow with Cityneon Holdings | Kuala Lumpur | 20 Sep |
| Roadshow with China Yongda Automobiles Services | Canada/US | 25-29 Sep |
| Roadshow with Xin Point Holdings | Hong Kong | 27 Sep |
| Roadshow with BBI Life Science Corp | Hong Kong | 28 Sep |
| Conference Call with Thai Union Group | Bangkok | 29 Sep |
| Asian Gems Conference 2017 | Singapore | 10-11 Oct |
| UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional Strategy Conference | Kuala Lumpur | 13 Nov |
Key Assumptions
| Country/Region | GDP (yoy) 2016 | GDP (yoy) 2017F | GDP (yoy) 2018F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Japan | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Singapore | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Malaysia | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
| Thailand | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Hong Kong | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| China | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Brent (Average) | 45 | 52 | 55 |
| CPO | 2,653 | 2,600 | 2,400 |
Conclusion
The report highlights the resilience of the coal sector in China, driven by policy reforms, reduced supply, and increased demand. It also notes the continued growth of the e-commerce sector, with Alibaba and JD.com leading the charge. In Indonesia, the real estate sector is viewed as a strong opportunity, while Malaysia's building materials sector is expected to benefit from sustained steel price increases. The property sector in Singapore is poised for growth, and Thailand's electricity generating sector is anticipated to see new plant developments in October. Overall, the report recommends a cautious but optimistic approach to investing in these markets.
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