20150706-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly_11页_289kb
报告摘要
Asia Property Weekly Summary
Core Content Overview
This summary provides a detailed analysis of the Asia property market, focusing on residential and commercial segments across key regions including China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, and Singapore. It includes market trends, key news updates, stock performance, and upcoming economic indicators.
Key News and Updates
China
- 32 cities with available data showed flat transaction volumes week-on-week (wow).
- 8 out of 13 cities saw price declines wow (median -2%).
- New home prices in major Chinese cities rose month-on-month (mom) for the second consecutive month in June, with an average increase of 0.56% to Rmb10,628 per square meter.
- China Vanke approved a Rmb10bn buyback of its A shares to protect investor interests amid market instability.
- CRIC reported +33% year-over-year (yoy) sales for major developers in 2Q15, with +91% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) growth.
Hong Kong
- 126 primary residential units were sold in the week ending Jul 5, a 45% drop from the prior week and 58% below the 3-month average.
- Secondary market prices increased 1.2% wow as of Jun 28, or 7.7% year-to-date (ytd).
- New World China Land (NWCL) sold its hotel management business to Chow Tai Fook Enterprises for HK$1,963mn, with a master lease agreement.
- Visitor arrivals from Jun 1 to 28 fell 1.9% yoy, marking the second monthly decline this year, while mainland tourists fell only 0.5% yoy.
Japan
- Construction starts in May reached 71,720 units (+5.8% yoy), up for 3 consecutive months.
- Tokyo condo starts increased 19.7% yoy, while Osaka saw a -16.5% yoy decline.
- Roadside land prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area rose 2.1% yoy, while the national average fell 0.4% yoy.
India
- Brigade Properties approved a Rs5.5bn land acquisition from Kansai Nerolac Paints, subject to legal due diligence.
- Industrial production, trade balance, and exports/imports are among the upcoming events for July 10.
Singapore
- Private home prices fell -0.9% qoq in 2Q15, compared to -1.0% qoq in 1Q15.
- HDB resale prices decreased -0.4% qoq vs. -1.0% qoq in 1Q15.
- Manulife Financial Corp delayed its plan to list a REIT in Singapore due to increased market volatility.
Key Market Performers
Top 5 Performers
| Stock | 1-week % | 1-month % |
|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Fudan | +4% | +9% |
| Aeon Mat Co Ltd | +3% | +5% |
| Mandarin Oriental | +3% | +6% |
| Hongkong Land | +2% | +4% |
| China Vanke (A) | +2% | +9% |
Bottom 5 Performers
| Stock | 1-week % | 1-month % |
|---|---|---|
| OCT | -24% | -20% |
| P.O. Real Estate | -11% | -28% |
| Shoa On Land | -10% | -14% |
| Sunac | -10% | -13% |
| Greentown China | -7% | -14% |
Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks
Buy-Rated (Market Cap > US$2bn)
| Stock | Upside Potential (%) |
|---|---|
| Agile | 121 |
| Shu On Land | 88 |
| Country Garden | 80 |
| Tokyo Tatemono | 65 |
| KWG Prop. | 62 |
Sell-Rated (Market Cap > US$2bn)
| Stock | Downside Potential (%) |
|---|---|
| Champion REIT | -25 |
| Gemdale Corp. | -22 |
| Great Eagle | -1 |
| Advance Residence | -8 |
| Hongkong & Shanghai Hotels | -1 |
Buy-Rated (Market Cap < US$2bn)
| Stock | Upside Potential (%) |
|---|---|
| Oberoi Realty | 50 |
| Prestige Estate | 46 |
| Buchwirtschaft, Jul. | 14 |
Self-Rated Stocks
| Stock | Downside Potential (%) |
|---|---|
| Norton Realty Res. | -2 |
| OUE Hospitality Trust | -6 |
| GodRei Properties | -0 |
Upcoming Events
| Date | Market | Events |
|---|---|---|
| 9-Jul | China | CPI, PPI |
| 10-Jul | China | Money supply |
| 10-Jul | Japan | Consumer confidence index |
| 10-Jul | India | Industrial production; Trade balance, exports, imports |
| 13-Jul | China | Trade balance, exports, imports |
| 13-Jul | Japan | Industrial production |
| 13-Jul | India | CPI |
Market Performance
Residential Market Snapshot
China
- Hong Kong: Prices up 1.2% wow (Jun 28), volume down -45% week-on-week.
- Beijing: Prices up +5% mom in June, volume up +336% month-on-month.
- Shanghai: Prices down -2% mom in June, volume up +175% month-on-month.
- Guangzhou: Prices up +8% mom in June, volume up +69% month-on-month.
- Shenzhen: Prices up +11% mom in June, volume up +224% month-on-month.
Japan
- Tokyo: Prices up +3% qoq in 15Q1, volume up +83% month-on-month.
India
- Mumbai: Prices down -1% qoq in 15Q1.
- Bangalore: Prices down -3% qoq in 15Q1.
Singapore
- Prices down -0.9% qoq in 2Q15, with a -1.0% qoq decline in 1Q15.
- Volume up +11% mom in June.
Valuation Comparison
| Sub-sector | 1-week | 1-month | 3-month | 6-month | Underlying P/E (x) | Dividend Yield (%) | % +/- Fwd. NAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China (off-shore) | -3 | -8 | +6 | +6 | 9.8 | 3.9 | -39 |
| China (on-shore) | -7 | -17 | -4 | +2 | 10.0 | 2.2 | -22 |
| Hong Kong | -1 | -6 | +1 | +4 | 15.9 | 3.0 | -34 |
| India Developers | -2 | -1 | -15 | -6 | 28.4 | 1.2 | -49 |
| Japan Developers | -2 | -7 | -4 | +5 | 29.0 | 0.6 | -49 |
| Japan REITs | -5 | -7 | -6 | -9 | 25.3 | 3.2 | -17 |
| Singapore Developers | 0 | -1 | -4 | +2 | 19.3 | 2.2 | -37 |
Summary of Supply and Take-Up
Residential
-
Greater China:
- Hong Kong: Existing stocks 1,138,421 units, vacancy 4.3%, take-up +1% week-on-week.
- Beijing: Existing stocks not available, vacancy not available, take-up +336% month-on-month.
- Shanghai: Existing stocks not available, vacancy not available, take-up +175% month-on-month.
- Guangzhou: Existing stocks not available, vacancy not available, take-up +69% month-on-month.
- Shenzhen: Existing stocks not available, vacancy not available, take-up +224% month-on-month.
-
Japan:
- Tokyo: Existing stocks not available, vacancy not available, take-up +83% month-on-month.
-
India:
- Mumbai: Existing stocks not available, vacancy not available, take-up not available.
-
Asean:
- Singapore: Existing stocks 311,635 units, vacancy 5.4%, take-up +11% month-on-month.
Commercial Property
-
Office:
- Hong Kong: Rental index 175, vacancy 4%, take-up +1% week-on-week.
- Beijing: Rental index 297, vacancy 3%, take-up +6% month-on-month.
- Shanghai: Rental index 151, vacancy 9%, take-up +7% month-on-month.
- Guangzhou: Rental index 154, vacancy 10%, take-up +7% month-on-month.
- Shenzhen: Rental index 260, vacancy 8%, take-up +7% month-on-month.
- Japan: Rental index 92, vacancy 7%, take-up +6% month-on-month.
- India: Rental index 70, vacancy 30%, take-up +7% month-on-month.
-
Retail:
- Hong Kong: Rental index 185, vacancy not available.
- Beijing: Rental index 193, vacancy +6% month-on-month.
- Shanghai: Rental index 133, vacancy +7% month-on-month.
- India: Rental index 103, vacancy not available.
- Asean: Rental index 125, vacancy +7% month-on-month.
Key Research Highlights
- New World Development: NWCL disposed its hotel management business for HK$1,963mn.
- Singapore REITs: Watered down REIT reforms are positive for the industry.
- Shanghai Shimao: Upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
- DLF: Downgraded to Neutral from Buy.
- Prestige Estate: No change in rating, but target price increased by 11.1%.
- Oberoi Realty: No change in rating, but target price increased by 17.2%.
Analysts and Contacts
- China Property: Yi Wang, CFA, Vicky Li, Jill Guan
- Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu, Justin Kwok, CFA, Claire Cheng, Nelson Wang
- Hong Kong Conglomerates: Simon Cheung, CFA, Janet Lu, Alex Ye
- India Property: Puneet Jain, Rishabh Gupta
- Japan Property: Sachiko Okada, Watanabe, Akira
- Singapore Property: Paul Lian, Jason Yeo, Vincent Lim
Disclosure
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware of potential conflicts of interest. This report is only one factor in making investment decisions. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
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