20151012-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly_11页_290kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content

This summary provides an overview of the Asia property market performance and key updates from the week of October 5 to October 11, 2015. It includes insights into residential and commercial property trends, stock performance, and upcoming events, along with the latest data from various regions such as China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and Singapore.

Main Points

Market Performance

• China (Offshore): The market showed a price performance of 3% (1-week), 5% (1-month), and a 15% decline over 3 months. The P/E ratio is 8.7, with a dividend yield of 4.4%.
• China (Onshore): A 4% increase in 1-week performance, 2% in 1-month, and a 20% drop over 6 months. The P/E ratio is 9.2, with a dividend yield of 2.4%.
• Hong Kong: A 3% increase in 1-week performance, 1% in 1-month, and a 15% drop over 3 months. The P/E ratio is 13.5, with a dividend yield of 3.5%.
• India Developers: A 2% increase in 1-week, 11% in 1-month, and a 15% drop over 3 months. The P/E ratio is 29.3, with a dividend yield of 1.1%.
• Japan Developers: A 5% increase in 1-week, 6% in 1-month, and a 8% drop over 6 months. The P/E ratio is 29.3, with a dividend yield of 0.6%.
• Japan REITs: A 12% increase in 1-week, 10% in 1-month, and a 9% drop over 6 months. The P/E ratio is 25.0, with a dividend yield of 3.3%.
• Singapore Developers: A 12% increase in 1-week, 8% in 1-month, and a 14% drop over 6 months. The P/E ratio is 21.5, with a dividend yield of 1.8%.

Key News and Updates

• China:
  • Volume increased by 13% week-on-week and 22% year-on-year after the national holidays. Tier 3 cities outperformed.
  • Inventory fell by 1.1% week-on-week in 16 tracked cities.
  • Chinese consumer optimism fell to a 5-year low in September, according to the China Wealth Index.
  • China Vanke's property sales rose by 24.7% year-on-year in September, with price increases in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.
  • Existing property purchases in Shanghai increased by 3.8% month-on-month and 136% year-on-year.
• Hong Kong:
  • 147 primary residential units were sold in the week ending October 11, an 81% increase from the previous week but 43% below the 3-month average.
  • Secondary market prices rose by 0.3% week-on-week as of October 4.
  • Tourism data for the first 9 months of 2015 showed a 0.5% decline in overall arrivals, while mainland tourists increased by 0.4%.
  • CKP won the Lohas Park Phase 8 project for HK$2.955 billion.
  • SHKP's CFO resigned and will retire as a Director from January 1, 2016.
  • DTZ reported a net take-up of 1.94 million square feet in Hong Kong's Grade A office market for the first 3 quarters of 2015.
• India:
  • DLF plans to sell its 40% stake in a subsidiary owning rent-generating assets and some land to institutional investors.
• Japan:
  • The June national residential house price index was 103.2, up 1.4% year-on-year, with Tokyo at 109.3 (+6% yoy) and Osaka at 101.8 (+3.4% yoy).
  • Tokyo's central 5 wards had a 4.53% vacancy rate in September, up from 4.72% in August.
  • Rent per tsubo in Tokyo rose by 4.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month.
  • The three JREITs related to Nomura Real Estate were merged into "Nomura Master Fund" and listed on the TSE.
• Singapore:
  • The Ministry of Finance rejected appeals to extend the 5-year deadline for residential projects.
  • Singapore and Malaysia launched an RFI for the KL-Singapore HSR project.

Upcoming Events

• October 13:
  • China: Trade balance, exports, imports
  • Japan: CCI
• October 14:
  • China: CPI, PPI
  • Japan: PPI
  • Singapore: GDP, Retail sales
• October 15:
  • Japan: Industrial production
  • Singapore: Retail sales
• October 19:
  • China: Retail sales, Industrial production
  • Hong Kong: Unemployment rate, Composite interest rate

Top Performers and Underperformers

Top 5 Performers

Bottom 5 Performers

Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks

Buy-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2bn)

Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2bn)

Buy-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2bn)

Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2bn)

Residential Market Snapshot

China

Japan

Asean

Commercial Property Market Snapshot

Office

Retail

Key Research Highlights

• China Overseas Land (0688.HK): Property management business spin-off details were announced.
• China Real Estate Developers: Holiday sales decreased week-on-week but increased year-on-year; inventory slightly increased.
• Asia Hotels: Reliable growth is expected despite headwinds; China Lodging was upgraded to Buy, while Mandarin Oriental was downgraded to Sell.
• Cheung Kong Property Holdings (1113.HK): Took a timely step to replenish the Hong Kong pipeline for asset turnover.
• Aeon Mall Co. (8905.T): 2Q results were in line, with cost cuts offsetting a drop in specialty store sales; rating remains Neutral.

Key Contacts

• China Property: Yi Wang, CFA (86) 21-2401-8930; Vicky Li (86) 21-2401-8926; Jill Guan (86) 21-2401-8921
• Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu (852) 2978-0634; Justin Kwok, CFA (852) 2978-0481; Claire Cheng (852) 2978-0488; Nelson Wang (65) 6654-5463
• Hong Kong Conglomerates: Simon Cheung, CFA (852) 2978-6102; Janet Lu (852) 2978-1642; Alex Ye (852) 2978-6666
• India Property: Puneet Jain (91) 22-6616-9046
• Japan Property: Sachiko Okada (81) 3-6437-9937; Akira Watanabe (81) 3-6437-9819
• Singapore Property: Paul Lian (65) 6889-2464; Jason Yeo (65) 6889-2485

Notes

• The upside/downside potential is based on 12-month target prices.
• Goldman Sachs may have a conflict of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in its research.
• The report is intended as a single factor in investment decisions.