20160329-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly_11页_291kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive review of the Asia property market, covering key developments, performance data, and upcoming events. It focuses on the residential and commercial property sectors across major markets including China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore, and highlights the latest research and market insights from Goldman Sachs and other sources.

Key Market Insights

China Property Market

• Transaction Volume: Continued to rise, with a +8% week-on-week and +76% year-on-year increase, driven by tier 2 cities.
• Inventory Levels: Decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, with inventory months dropping to 9.4 months.
• Policy Changes: On March 25, Shanghai and Shenzhen introduced new policies to cool down property markets, including raising down payment requirements for second home buyers.
• Land Transactions: Vol and value rebounded by 156% / 85% respectively, led by Hefei.
• Farmer Land Mortgage: The PBOC is piloting a scheme allowing farmers to mortgage land to boost the rural economy.
• Commercial Real Estate: Record US$443bn was injected into commercial real estate, reflecting investor confidence in global markets.

Hong Kong Property Market

• Residential Sales: Estimated 179 units sold in the week ending March 27, down 26% from the prior week and 98% above the 3-month average.
• Secondary Market Prices: Rose 0.7% week-on-week as of March 20; year-to-date prices were -5.5%.
• Average Rent: Fell for the 5th consecutive month by 2.9% month-on-month, reaching HK$30.4 psf in February, the lowest in 20 months since June 2014.
• Residential Development: Far East Consortium won a residential site in Sha Tin Heights for HK$245mn or HK$2,760 psf, with plans to invest HK$800mn-900mn in development.
• NWCL Privatization: Announced as unconditional on March 21, with share trading suspended from April 6.

Japan Property Market

• Land Prices: Modest increases in the three major metro areas, with +0.5% for residential land and +2.9% for commercial land in Jan-15.
• Commercial Real Estate: Mitsui Fudosan announced a large logistics facility in Okasa with 241,900 sqm GFA, to be completed in September 2017.
• Residential Prices: Tokyo saw a +0.5% month-on-month rise in residential prices in February, while commercial prices remained stable.
• REITs Performance: Japan REITs showed a +1% week-on-week and +13% month-on-month performance, with a dividend yield of 2.8%.

Singapore Property Market

• Residential Prices: The overall residential price index increased +0.4% month-on-month in February, but fell -2.0% year-on-year.
• Policy Stance: The Minister for Finance stated it is premature to relax property cooling measures.
• Developer Confidence: Developers are confident in clearing housing inventory before the ABSD applies.

Key Viewpoints

• Market Volatility: China's property market is highly volatile, with significant week-on-week changes.
• Cooling Measures: Both China and Hong Kong have implemented cooling measures, affecting transaction volumes and prices.
• Investor Sentiment: Despite the cooling measures, there is still strong investor interest in commercial real estate, particularly in Japan.
• Rental Trends: Rental prices in Hong Kong have been declining for the past five months, with a 2.9% month-on-month drop.
• Market Outlook: The commercial property market in Japan and Singapore shows signs of resilience and potential for growth.

Upcoming Events

Key Ratings and Target Prices

Top / Bottom 5 Performers of the Week

Top Performers:

• Red Star Macmillane: +20% (1-wk), +17% (1-mo)
• Kinder Int'l: +9% (1-wk), +15% (1-mo)
• Advance Residence Inn: +4% (1-wk), +4% (1-mo)
• Evergarden: +4% (1-wk), +17% (1-mo)
• Shangri-La Asia: +3% (1-wk), +14% (1-mo)

Bottom Performers:

• Yantland Land: -1% (1-wk), +17% (1-mo)
• Nippon Building Fund: +2% (1-wk), +0% (1-mo)
• Japan Retail Fund: +3% (1-wk), +4% (1-mo)
• Japan Real Estate: +0% (1-wk), -2% (1-mo)
• Nippon Proligous REIT Inc: -1% (1-wk), +2% (1-mo)

Key Rating Changes

Summary

The Asia property market is showing mixed performance across different regions. China's market is experiencing a rise in transaction volumes and a decline in inventory, with new policies introduced to cool the market. Hong Kong is witnessing a decline in rental prices and mixed trends in secondary market prices. Japan's land prices are showing modest growth, while Singapore is maintaining a cautious stance on property cooling measures. The document highlights key ratings, target prices, and upcoming events that could influence market dynamics. Investors are advised to consider these reports as a single factor in their decision-making process.