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Roland Berger Focus: Hope on the Horizon in the Aerostructure Tooling Market

Core Content

This document presents a comprehensive analysis of the aerostructure tooling market, highlighting the key drivers and potential future scenarios. It outlines the market's evolution from a period of stagnation in 2012 to a more promising outlook in 2018, driven by increased production rates, new aircraft programs, and the advancement of automation technology.

Main Points

• Market Overview: The aerostructure tooling market plays a critical role in modern aircraft production, enabling industrial-scale manufacturing. It includes automated production systems, automated assembly systems, small tools, and services.
• Historical Context: In 2012, the market was in a ramp-up phase for the A350 and B787 programs, leading to a stagnant outlook. By 2015, the A320neo family and B737 MAX showed strong growth, and early signs of automation emerged.
• Consolidation: The market has experienced consolidation, with major players like KUKA systems Aerospace North America being acquired by Advanced Integration Technology (AIT). The top ten players accounted for about 40% of the market in 2016, with further concentration expected.
• Market Drivers: The study identifies three primary drivers: rate increases in legacy programs, new aircraft programs, and continuous spend (including automation). The fourth driver, operational services, is less impactful in the sensitivity analysis.
• Scenarios for Market Growth:
  • Base Case: Assumes announced rate increases, limited new programs, and moderate automation penetration. Forecasted annual growth is 3.4% for 2018-2023, with a total market size of USD 2.7 billion by 2023.
  • Enhanced Case: Optimistic scenario with further rate increases and increased automation. Forecasted annual growth is 6.7%, with a total market size of USD 3.3 billion by 2023.
  • Aggressive Case: Most optimistic scenario, assuming new aircraft programs and faster automation. Forecasted annual growth is 11.9%, with a total market size of USD 4.0 billion by 2023.

Key Insights

• Automation's Role: Automation is identified as the key growth driver, with the potential to significantly impact market growth. Suppliers are advised to position themselves at the forefront of automation to gain a competitive advantage.
• Market Uncertainty: While there is hope for growth, the market remains uncertain. The lack of new programs in the near future means that automation and continuous spend will be crucial for future growth.
• Strategic Recommendations: Tooling suppliers should focus on developing strong business cases for automation, aligning with OEMs and large aerostructure players to benefit from the industry's new growth opportunities.

Conclusion

The aerostructure tooling market is poised for growth, driven primarily by automation and continuous spend. While the base case is expected to be realized, the enhanced and aggressive cases represent potential upside scenarios. Suppliers who adapt to automation and align with OEMs will be best positioned to profit from the market's evolution.

Methodology

• The study was based on interviews with industry experts in nine countries.
• A proprietary market driver model was used, incorporating both primary and secondary drivers.
• Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the impact of different assumptions on market growth.

Market Segmentation

• New Tooling Development: Expected to grow significantly with new programs.
• Rate Tooling: Sensitive to production rate increases.
• Operational Services: Moderate growth, influenced by automation and production rate changes.
• Continuous Spend: Driven by automation and build process enhancements, showing steady growth.

Key Figures

• Market Size in 2017: USD 2.3 billion.
• Base Case Forecast (2018-2023): 3.4% annual growth, USD 2.7 billion by 2023.
• Enhanced Case Forecast (2018-2023): 6.7% annual growth, USD 3.3 billion by 2023.
• Aggressive Case Forecast (2018-2023): 11.9% annual growth, USD 4.0 billion by 2023.

Authors and Publisher

• Authors:
  • Dr. Holger Lipowsky, Partner
  • Emmanuel Godard, Senior Project Manager
  • Manfred Hader, Senior Partner
  • Dominique Gautier, Senior Partner
• Publisher: Roland Berger GmbH, Munich, Germany

Disclaimer

This document is for general guidance only. No action should be taken based on the information provided without specific professional advice. Roland Berger GmbH shall not be liable for any damages resulting from the use of this information.