20240105-国投安信期货-成品油期货品种手册系列（五）_国际成品油供需格局_6页_1mb

Main Report Summary: International Crude Oil Supply and Demand Pattern (Based on "国际成品油供需格局" by Guotou Anxin Futures)

Introduction

The global supply and demand pattern for refined petroleum products, such as gasoline and diesel, is influenced by the availability of crude oil resources and the strength of refining capacities in different regions. This analysis focuses on current trends and distribution.

Global Refining Capacity Distribution

• Distribution Overview: Refining capacity is unevenly distributed, with major concentrations in the Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, and Middle East regions due to variations in crude oil resources and local industry capabilities.
  • Asia-Pacific Region:约占全球能力36.19% (361.9 million barrels/day), dominated by China, Japan, and India, which together make up 70% of the regional capacity. China alone holds a significant share.
  • North America:约占全球能力21.17% (2,157 million barrels/day), almost entirely concentrated in the United States (83%).
  • Europe:约占全球能力14.77% (1,505 million barrels/day), concentrated in countries like the UK, France, and Germany, totaling 60%.
  • Middle East:约占全球能力10.85% (1,106 million barrels/day), with increasing capacity from new investments.
• Trends: Over recent decades, Asia-Pacific capacity has risen from 28% in 2004 to 36% in 2022, while Europe's share declined from 21% to 14.77%. Mid-20th century transitions and growth highlight shifts favoring these regions. Total global capacity reached 10,190 million barrels/day in 2022, up 0.53% from 2021.

Global Gasoline Supply and Demand

• Supply: The United States is the largest producer, with other key countries including China, Russia, Japan, and India. Production data includes US output around 812 million barrels/day.
• Demand: High consumption is in North America (923 million barrels/day or 39% global), Asia-Pacific (685 million barrels/day or 29%), and other regions like Europe and Middle East, each holding significant shares.

Global Diesel Supply and Demand

• Supply: Similar to gasoline, the US leads in production, with China, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia as major contributors.
• Demand: Asia-Pacific consumes about 950 million barrels/day (34% global), while North America takes 500 million barrels/day (18%), and Europe and Middle East see high demand in specific regions.

Key Takeaways

The report underscores that China, the US, and Russia play pivotal roles in refining and consumption, with Asia-Pacific's growing influence contrasting Europe's decline. This pattern impacts global markets and should be monitored for volatility. Data from sources like BP and JODI support these analyses.