2003年-世界发展银行全球_Causes_and_Consequences_of_Civil_Strife___Micro-Level_Evidence_from_Uganda_44页_30mb

Summary of "Causes and Consequences of Civil Strife: Micro-Level Evidence from Uganda"

Core Content

This working paper by Klaus Deininger explores the causes and consequences of civil strife in Uganda using micro-level data. It bridges the gap between case studies and cross-country analyses by focusing on community and household-level determinants of civil conflict and its economic impact. The paper contributes to the broader understanding of how internal violence affects economic development and investment in African countries.

Main Findings

Causes of Civil Strife

• Distance from infrastructure (a proxy for limited economic opportunities and government investment) increases the likelihood of civil strife.
• Asset inequality (social tension) contributes to civil strife.
• Presence of cash crops (expropriable wealth) raises the propensity for civil conflict.
• Lower levels of human capital (reduced ability to benefit from economic opportunities) increase the risk of civil strife.
• Ethnic fractionalization plays a role, though to a lesser extent than other factors.

Consequences of Civil Strife

• Civil strife reduces investment and non-agricultural enterprise formation at the household level, in contrast to theft and physical violence.
• Civil strife shifts economic activity toward subsistence and away from market-integrated activities.
• Government infrastructure provision is identified as a conflict-reducing factor.
• Households' perceptions of the environment significantly influence their investment and business decisions.

Policy Implications

• Policies that improve education and infrastructure access can help reduce the incidence of civil strife.
• Economic development efforts that increase the opportunity cost of labor are likely to have a negative impact on the likelihood of civil conflict.
• Civil strife has a strong and persistent impact on economic growth, suggesting that economic recovery may be compromised by ongoing internal violence.

Key Variables and Relationships

• Rebel activity is determined by:

  • Community-level asset endowments (higher asset levels increase rebel activity).
  • Infrastructure availability (lower infrastructure decreases rebel activity).
  • Pre-existing grievance (higher levels of social tension increase rebel activity).
  • Human capital (lower levels of education decrease rebel activity).
  • Asset distribution inequality (higher inequality increases rebel activity).

• Household investment is affected by:

  • Civil strife (negative impact on investment).
  • Income level (lower income due to taxation reduces investment).
  • Expectations of future taxation (negative impact due to persistence of conflict).
  • Human capital and asset levels (positive impact on investment).

Data and Methodology

• The paper uses community- and household-level data from:

  • 1992 Uganda Integrated Household Survey (IHS)
  • 1999/2000 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS)

• These surveys cover slightly less than 10,000 households in about 1,000 communities.

• A panel of 370 communities is used to analyze changes over time.

• The paper employs a stylized model of rebel decision-making and household investment behavior.

• The model assumes that:

  • Rebels are motivated by tax revenue from the local population.
  • Households respond to taxation by reducing investment or migrating.
  • Investment decisions are influenced by the presence of civil strife.

Limitations of Cross-Country Analysis

• Cross-country regressions often lack detail and suffer from endogeneity.
• Reverse causation is a concern, as economic outcomes may also affect the likelihood of civil strife.
• Data availability and quality are particularly problematic in crisis-torn states in Africa.
• Micro-level data allows for more precise identification of the determinants and consequences of civil strife.

Conclusion

• The study suggests that economic development and government investment in infrastructure and education are key to reducing the incidence of civil strife.
• Civil strife has a detrimental effect on investment and economic diversification.
• The persistence of conflict implies that preventing civil strife is essential for sustained economic recovery.
• The findings support the idea that economic factors, such as opportunity cost and human capital, are more relevant to civil strife than political or ethnic motivations alone.

Structure of the Paper

1. Introduction – Highlights the importance of civil strife in economic development and the need for micro-level analysis.
2. Literature Review and Conceptual Model – Reviews existing literature and presents a model of rebel decision-making and household investment.
3. Data and Definitions – Describes the data sources and how civil strife is defined and measured.
4. Empirical Results – Presents the findings from the analysis of community and household data.
5. Conclusion and Policy Implications – Summarizes the main results and suggests directions for future research and policy.