20240101-东吴证券-宏观点评_12月PMI_2023年如何收尾__5页_439kb

报告摘要

PMI declined to 49.0%, a 0.4 percentage point drop, slightly exceeding seasonal expectations, primarily due to synchronized weakening in demand and supply.
Key factors: Demand side shows persistent weakness in new orders and export orders, with 60.8% of firms reporting insufficient market demand; supply side continues declining, with production index at 50.2%.
Price indices diverged: Input prices rose 0.8 points to 51.5%, likely influenced by global factors, while output prices fell 0.5 points to 47.7%, potentially squeezing downstream profits.
Future outlook: 2024 could mark the start of an inventory replenishment cycle, supporting PMI recovery and economic "opening red" momentum.
Segmented analysis: All business sizes (large, medium, small) saw PMI declines, though small firms showed slight export orders improvement.
Sector performance: Construction PMI improved significantly, ending the year positively, but services remained below 50, supporting modest stability.
Risks: Highlighted uncertainties include policy implementation delays, export contraction, and credit risks.