20230823-交银国际证券-科技行业周报_硅晶圆供过于求或仍将持续两年_6页_739kb

报告摘要

Report Overview: This report analyzes the current trends and outlook for the global semiconductor and tech industry, incorporating recent earnings data and forecasts. It emphasizes the cyclical nature of the industry and provides investment insights based on data from companies like Application Materials, Wolfspeed, and market statistics from sources such as Gartner.
Key Company Performances:
- Application Materials: Q3 2023 revenue declined 15% to $64.3 billion; the company projects a 13% revenue increase for Q4 2023 to around $65.1 billion, with management suggesting industry conditions may be improving. However, the semiconductor sector continues to face challenges from reduced expand plans by downstream manufacturers, and there is an expectation for demand recovery in 2024 driven by AI adoption, which currently accounts for a small part of its revenue but is set to rise.
- Wolfspeed: Q4 2023 revenue rose 32% to $23.6 billion, but net losses increased to $11.3 billion, attributed to expansion costs for carbon silicon capacity and reduced market demand in the electric vehicle space, following earlier agreements with companies like Renesas Electronics. The company anticipates continued investment through 2024 despite market headwinds from factors like Tesla's plan to reduce silicon carbide usage.
Market Outlook and Forecasts:
- Semiconductor Market: Gartner estimates a 112% decline in global semiconductor market size for 2023, with chip shipments expected to decrease by 3%. Inventory levels among clients are at record highs, indicating a prolonged inventory adjustment period that could extend supply-demand imbalances until 2025, as forecasted by Shinsumco.
- Silicon Wafer Supply: Oversupply is expected to persist due to new factory openings by manufacturers, while clients accumulate stock, worsening the situation. Industry growth projections for 2023-2026 have been revised downward.
Investment Implications:
- The cyclical recovery for the tech hardware sector is shifted to 2024, with current market downturns affecting pricing pressures across products like semiconductor equipment and materials. The report recommends monitoring for cycle turning points through supply-demand indicators.
- Specific company ratings include buys on BOCGI (JBD Precision Electronics) and CSI (Cayn Materials Inc.), with neutrals on companies like MCL (MC Technology) and MWX (other firm), offering target prices and potential upside percentages. Average valuation metrics are provided based on earnings forecasts.
Important Report Elements: The final sections of the report, including analyst disclosures, business relationships, and disclaimers, must be reviewed. The disclosures outline potential conflicts of interest and remind readers that the report does not constitute investment advice and may be subject to legal restrictions.