国家经济和社会研究所-2021年夏季英国经济展望：摆脱新冠病毒的阴影（英）-2021.7-61页_1mb

Summary of the National Institute UK Economic Outlook - Summer 2021

Core Content

The National Institute UK Economic Outlook - Summer 2021 provides a comprehensive analysis of the UK economy's recovery from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing Brexit transition. The report outlines the current state of economic activity, inflation, fiscal policy, and regional disparities, emphasizing the need for policy flexibility and targeted support to ensure a sustainable and balanced recovery.

Main Forecast

• GDP Growth:
  • 2021: 6.8% (up from 5.7% in the Spring Outlook)
  • 2022: 5.3%
  • 2023: 2.4%
  • 2025: 1.8%
• GDP Superseding Pre-Covid Peak: GDP is expected to surpass its pre-Covid level in the first quarter of 2022, but the forecast trajectory remains 3% below the pre-Covid trend.
• Cumulative GDP Loss (2020–2025): £735 billion compared to the 2010–2019 trend.

Key Economic Indicators

Main Views

1. Economic Recovery

• The UK economy is expected to return to pre-Covid levels of activity by early 2022.
• Growth is not yet broad-based, being driven mainly by the reopening of certain sectors.
• The Delta variant has slowed the recovery and raised concerns about future restrictions and social distancing.

2. Sectoral and Regional Outlook

• Construction and reopened sectors (e.g., hospitality, arts, and recreation) have shown strong growth.
• Manufacturing and private traded services are expected to grow at 6% and 5% respectively in 2021.
• Regional disparities are expected to persist, with London showing the most resilience and the Midlands and Northern Ireland more vulnerable.
• International travel is severely impacted, with potential long-term consequences for the economy.

3. Inflation and Monetary Policy

• CPI inflation is forecast to peak at 3.9% in the first quarter of 2022, then fall to 2% in 2023.
• The rise in inflation is due to strong demand in reopened sectors and supply constraints, such as semiconductor shortages and EU import bottlenecks.
• Interest rates are expected to remain low until the end of 2022, with the Bank of England focusing on clear communication about the exit from quantitative easing (QE) and the normalization of rates.

4. Fiscal Policy and Debt

• Government debt is expected to peak at 98.6% of GDP in 2022-23, but will fall to 92.3% by 2025-26.
• The current account deficit is forecast to return to pre-referendum levels in the medium term.
• Public investment of around £30 billion per year is needed to stabilize public debt.

5. Labour Market and Household Impact

• The unemployment rate is expected to peak at 5.4% in Q4 2021, with about 150,000 people remaining unemployed after the end of the furlough scheme.
• Household incomes are forecast to grow by over 5% in 2021, driven by the return of furloughed workers.
• Labour shortages persist, particularly in sectors reliant on European workers and those not yet fully vaccinated.

Key Risks and Challenges

• Downside risks include further outbreaks of Covid-19, which could lead to new lockdowns or sustained voluntary social distancing.
• Supply-side constraints such as semiconductor shortages and EU import bottlenecks will continue to affect growth.
• Fiscal and monetary policy must be flexible and transparent, with a focus on regional and household inequalities.

Policy Recommendations

• Gradual and cautious policy responses are needed, especially regarding the exit from lockdowns and the reduction of social distancing measures.
• Support for re-training and employment transition should be provided to those affected by job losses or changes in the labour market.
• The UK should lead in advocating for waivers on intellectual property to ensure global access to vaccines.
• Monetary policy should focus on matching financial capital with the most productive prospects and maintaining inflation expectations.
• The need for a Ministry for the Economy is emphasized to ensure a more consistent and durable set of economic policies.

Conclusion

The report highlights that while the UK economy is on a path to recovery, it faces significant challenges due to the long-term impacts of the pandemic and Brexit-related disruptions. The recovery is uneven, with regional and sectoral disparities still evident. The focus should be on building resilient and competitive firms, addressing labour shortages, and ensuring fiscal and monetary policies support sustainable growth and reduce inequality.