20260901-招银国际-正力新能-03677.HK-1H26_a_mixed_bag_margin_recovery_from_2H26_5页_1mb

报告摘要

Zenergy (3677 HK) Summary

Core Content Overview

Zenergy, a company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reported mixed results for the first half of 2026 (1H26). Despite exceeding revenue and SG&A expense forecasts, the gross margin (GPM) underperformed due to raw material price increases. The report maintains a BUY rating but adjusts the target price from HK$13.00 to HK$11.50, based on a revised 15x P/E ratio for FY27E. The key factors influencing the outlook are expected margin recovery, increased capacity utilization, and improved cost pass-through.

Main Points

1H26 Performance:
- Revenue: RMB5.4bn, a 71% YoY increase, surpassing the forecast by 2%.
- GPM: 12.5%, a 5.4ppts YoY decline, below the forecast by 3.2ppts.
- SG&A & R&D expenses: Combined ratio declined 5.6ppts YoY to 8.4%, better than the forecast by 1.5ppts.
- Net Profit: RMB372mn, a 5% lower than the forecast, with a net margin of 6.8%.
2H26 and FY27E Outlook:
- Sales Volume: Expected to reach 32GWh for FY26E and 58GWh for FY27E.
- GPM Recovery: Anticipated to increase by 1.8ppts HoH to 14.3% in 2H26E.
- Net Profit: Estimated to rise 44% HoH to RMB536mn in 2H26E and 83% YoY to RMB1.66bn in FY27E.
- Capacity Expansion: Effective annual capacity is expected to double to about 70GWh by FY27E.
Key Risks:
- Lower sales volume from major clients.
- Slower client expansion.
- Lower margins than expected.

Financial Highlights

Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec)

Metric	FY24A	FY25A	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E
Revenue (RMB mn)	5,130	8,101	12,709	20,405	27,164
YoY growth (%)	23.3	57.9	56.9	60.6	33.1
Gross margin (%)	14.6	18.4	13.5	14.6	15.2
Net profit (RMB mn)	91.0	808.6	908.0	1,660.1	2,392.5

Profitability Metrics

Metric	2023A	2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
Gross margin (%)	5.0	14.6	18.4	13.5	14.6	15.2
Operating margin (%)	-12.2%	-1.8%	4.7%	6.2%	8.2%	9.4%
Net margin (%)	-7.0%	6.7%	6.9%	11.9%	6.8%	8.8%
ROE (%)	-16.3%	1.7%	11.6%	10.6%	16.8%	20.0%

Valuation Metrics

Metric	2023A	2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
P/E (x)	ns	112.3	13.6	12.4	6.8	4.7
P/B (x)	1.8	1.7	1.4	1.3	1.1	0.9
P/CFPS (x)	29.7	ns	7.6	3.7	2.4	1.9

Key Financial Ratios

Net Debt to Equity: 0.1x in 2026E, expected to drop to -0.0x in 2027E and -0.2x in 2028E.
Current Ratio: 0.9x in 2026E, expected to remain stable at 0.9x in 2027E and increase to 1.0x in 2028E.
Receivable Turnover Days: 80.0 in 2026E, rising to 85.0 in 2027E and remaining at 85.0 in 2028E.
Inventory Turnover Days: 70.0 in 2026E, expected to remain around 68.0–67.0 in 2027E and 2028E.
Payable Turnover Days: 270.0 in 2026E, expected to remain stable at 265.0 in 2027E and 2028E.

Analyst Information

Analysts:
- Ji SHI, CFA
- Wenjing DOU, CFA
- Austin Liang

Stock Data

Metric	Value (HK$)
Market Cap	13,168.0
Avg 3 mths t/o	12.8
52w High/Low	12.30/5.11
Total Issued Shares (mn)	2554.4

Shareholding Structure

Shareholder	Percentage
Ms. Cao Fang and concert parties	45.4%
Others	54.6%

Share Performance

Period	Absolute (%)	Relative (%)
1-mth	-8.6	-8.2
3-mth	-29.4	-29.3
6-mth	-44.0	-39.2

CMBIGM Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months.
OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.