2025-06-05-Jefferies-Systemair（SYSR）_初步观点_区域趋势不一推动2024_25年第四季度有机增长0.5_7页_102kb

Systemair 4Q24/25 Performance Summary

Core Content

Systemair AB reported mixed results for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 24/25 (February to April), with net sales of SEK 3,002.2 million, representing a -2.2% year-over-year decline and a +0.5% organic growth. Adjusted EBIT increased by +24.5% y-o-y to SEK 259.7 million, resulting in an EBIT margin of 8.7%, up from 6.8% in the previous quarter.

Regional Performance

• Nordics: Net sales of SEK 540.4 million (+2.1% y-o-y), organic growth of +4.5%
• Western Europe: Net sales of SEK 1,385.2 million (+2.7% y-o-y), organic growth of +5.5%
• Eastern Europe & CIS: Net sales of SEK 332.8 million (+8.2% y-o-y), organic growth of +11.2%
• North America: Net sales of SEK 334.3 million (-13.9% y-o-y), organic growth of -8.8%
• Middle East, Asia, Australia and Africa: Net sales of SEK 409.5 million (-17.2% y-o-y), organic growth of -16.8%

The decline in the Middle East, Asia, Australia and Africa region was attributed to lower shipments in India due to the relocation of production facilities and challenging comparisons in Turkey.

Key Financial Metrics

• Gross Profit: SEK 1,094.4 million (+1.5% y-o-y), margin of 36.5% (up from 35.1% in 4Q23/24)
• Operating Profit: SEK 259.7 million (+24.5% y-o-y), margin of 8.7%

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: SEK 110.00 (+24% from current price of SEK 88.40)
• Market Cap: SEK 18.4B or $1.9B

Analyst Information

• Adela Dashian: Equity Analyst, Jefferies GmbH
• Martin Comtesse, CFA: Equity Analyst, Jefferies GmbH

Both analysts certify that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal opinions and that their compensation is not directly related to the recommendations.

Valuation Methodology

Systemair is valued using a fundamental DCF model, resulting in a fair value of SEK 110 and a target EV/EBIT multiple of 18x (2025/26E). Key valuation factors include market risk, growth rate, revenue stream, and EBITDA.

Investment Risks

• Macro-economic risks
• Competitive risks
• Supply chain risks

The report also highlights that the company is not directly impacted by trade tariffs due to its regionalized production strategy.

Analyst Disclosures

Jefferies may have conflicts of interest with companies covered in its reports, as it may receive compensation for investment banking services. This report is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered only as one of many factors in investment decisions.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

The report is subject to various legal and regulatory requirements depending on the jurisdiction. It is intended for professional or institutional investors in most regions, and may not be suitable for retail investors. The report is not an offer to buy or sell securities and does not constitute investment advice.

Distribution and Usage

• Conference Call: Scheduled for today at 9:00 CET (link to register)
• Ratings and Price Target History: Available for Systemair AB as of 06-03-2025

Summary of Key Points

• Systemair reported modest organic growth of +0.5% in 4Q24/25.
• Regional performance was mixed, with declines in Middle East, Asia, Australia and Africa.
• North America saw a significant decline due to a weak US market.
• The company's regionalized production strategy mitigates the impact of trade tariffs.
• The report recommends a "Buy" rating with a price target of SEK 110.00.
• The valuation is based on DCF, yielding a fair value of SEK 110 and a target EV/EBIT multiple of 18x.
• The report contains various legal and regulatory disclosures and is not tailored to individual investors.