20250526-Jefferies-唐纳森（DCI）_重新平衡第三季度和第四季度以更好地反映宏观信号_11页_1mb

Donaldson Equity Research Summary

Key Ratings and Price Target

• Rating: HOLD
• Current price: $68.19
• Price target: $75.00 (+10%)

Segment Forecasts Adjustment

• Adjusted Q3 EPS down by $0.04 and Q4 EPS up by $0.04.
• On-Road: Expected sales decline of 11-13% (12% revised).
• Off-Road: Sales decline expected 4-6%.
• IFS: Sales increase adjusted to +4.0%.
• Aftermarket: Sales increase revised to +9%.
• A&D: Sales growth of 7-9%.

Investment Thesis

• Driven by end-market demand in on-road/off-road (agriculture as proxy), class 8 truck orders, industrial filtration orders, raw material inflation offset through price initiatives, and emerging market investments.
• Cumulative EPS through 2025 includes $0.12 from modest M&A (vs. $0.15 expected impact).
• FY26 EPS could peak at $4.35 under current target multiple, or trough at $2.40.

Valuation and Risks

• Price target based on 17.2x 2026E EPS and mid-cycle regression models.
• Upside scenario: Stronger industrial cycles driving sales growth.
• Downside risks: Recession, slower EV adoption, aggressive M&A.
• Target multiple for trough scenario: 15x

Company Overview

• Donaldson Company, Inc. based in Minneapolis, worldwide filtration systems provider (57% sales outside US).

Key Notes

• Cycle forecasts: Shorter, more volatile than typical (6-4 cycles for IFS/Off-Road in past decade).
• Sustainability focus: Emissions reduction, solar power shift, and GHG targets.
• Analyst certification ensures recommendations reflect personal views.