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Global Risk Aversion Rising, Focus on Bond Market Opportunities Due to Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Challenges

• Key Drivers: Escalating Middle East uncertainty has boosted global risk aversion, pressuring risk assets and supporting debt markets. Partial tariff increases are worsening economic headwinds, leading to concerns about asset performance amid potential policy interventions.

• Economic Data: China's May figures show M2 growth at 7.9%, M1 at 2.3%, narrowing M2-M1 spread to 5.6 percentage points. Shadow banking and social financing remain strong, indicating economic resilience despite ongoing pressures. Core CPI inflation signals modest recovery, with PMI data showing improved manufacturing activity, though potential trade frictions persist.

• Policy Impacts: China's central bank indicates robust financial support with higher-than-expected social financing growth. Policy tools are being prepared for the second half, yet structural issues remain unresolved. Markets anticipate novel policy instruments, including potential expansion in fiscal measures.

• Geopolitical Factors: Rising tensions from US-Iran incidents have fueled risk-averse sentiment, aligning with broader global uncertainty. This avoids direct policy conflicts but could alter trade dynamics, indirectly benefiting defensive assets.

• Bond Market Outlook: Short-term, geopolitical risks and stable monetary conditions support bond volatility and potential upward bias in yields, especially duration plays. However, economic indicators like consumer demand and credit growth suggest mixed trends, necessitating careful monitoring of policy repercussions.

• Specific Recommendations: Explore concerted volatility through duration choices and hedges, focusing on long-term government bonds. Slight bias to contrarian views based on rally phases; consolidations may offer entry points for long positions. Monitor evolving US-China dynamics and ongoing risk assessments for timely adjustments.