20260831-招银国际-迈瑞医疗-300760.SZ-1H26_in_line_overseas_momentum_and_domestic_recovery_intact_5页_1mb

Mindray (300760 CH) Summary

Core Content

Mindray, a Chinese healthcare company, reported its first-half of 2026 (1H26) financial results, showing revenue of RMB17.75bn, a 6.0% year-over-year (YoY) increase. In the second quarter, the growth accelerated to 10.5% YoY, aligning with expectations. The attributable net profit decreased by 3.6% YoY to RMB5.05bn, primarily due to foreign exchange (FX) losses. However, excluding FX impact, net profit grew by 8.7% YoY.

Main Points

• Overseas Performance:

  • Overseas revenue reached RMB9.5bn, up 13.7% YoY (18.4% in USD terms), representing 53% of total revenue in 1H26.
  • Europe was the strongest market, with nearly 25% YoY growth.
  • Key markets (UK, France, Italy) saw growth over 30% YoY.
  • Latin America and APAC (17% YoY) also showed strong performance.
  • Growth was broadly based across product lines, with overseas IVD revenue up 21% YoY and immunoassay up 30% YoY.
  • Overseas PMLS and ultrasound also saw growth, with PMLS over 10% YoY and ultrasound in high-single-digit growth.
  • CMBIGM expects continued double-digit overseas growth in 2026E, driven by Europe, Latin America, and APAC.

• Domestic Recovery:

  • Domestic revenue was RMB8.3bn, down 1.6% YoY, but CMBIGM estimates that 2Q26 returned to positive growth at ~8.8% YoY.
  • Emerging businesses and IVD are key growth engines domestically, contributing 21% YoY growth and 24% of domestic revenue in 1H26.
  • Combined, these two segments account for 74% of total domestic revenue.
  • Mindray increased its market share in core IVD categories (CLIA, chemistry, coagulation) from 10% in 1H25 to 14% in 1H26.
  • TLA installed base expanded rapidly, with over 260 new orders and nearly 200 installations in 1H26.
  • Domestic revenue is expected to resume single-digit growth in 2026E, supported by IVD share gains, continued growth in emerging businesses, and a more favorable comparison base.

• Earnings Forecast:

  • CMBIGM maintains its FY26E–FY28E revenue forecasts but lowers FY26E earnings forecast due to near-term FX headwinds.
  • Earnings for FY26E are estimated at RMB6.49, FY27E at RMB7.74, and FY28E at RMB8.66.
  • The target price is set at RMB204.94, based on a 9-year discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a WACC of 9.1% and terminal growth rate of 3.0%.

• Key Risks:

  • Centralized procurement-driven price cuts.
  • Weak domestic procurement demand.
  • Underperformance in overseas expansion.

Financial Highlights

Valuation and DCF

• DCF Valuation (RMB mn):

  • 2026E: 233,709
  • Terminal value: 349,046
  • Terminal growth rate: 3.0%
  • WACC: 9.1%

• Sensitivity Analysis:

  • For different WACC scenarios, the valuation decreases as WACC increases.
  • For different terminal growth rates, the valuation also decreases as the growth rate decreases.

Analyst Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months.
• NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Shareholding and Stock Data

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Smartco Development Limited: 27.0%
  • Magnifice (HK) Limited: 24.5%

• Stock Performance:

  • 1-month return: 9.1%
  • 3-month return: 9.0%
  • 6-month return: -11.6%
  • 12-month price performance: not provided

• Market Data:

  • Market Cap: RMB199,204.1 million
  • 52-week High/Low: RMB248.24/RMB133.98
  • Total Issued Shares: 1,212.4 million

Financial Summary

Key Financial Ratios

Liquidity and Activities

Important Disclosures

• CMBIGM provides general information and does not offer personalized investment advice.
• The report is for the use of intended recipients only and cannot be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.
• The information is based on publicly available data and may not reflect actual performance.
• There may be conflicts of interest, and CMBIGM is not liable for any losses resulting from reliance on this information.
• The report is not an offer to buy or sell any security and is intended for distribution to major US institutional investors only.