【世界银行】博内尔岛可持续城市发展承载力研究-2024_61页_10mb

Bonaire Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study Summary

Core Content

This study, conducted by the World Bank in collaboration with the Bonaire government, evaluates the island's carrying capacity in the context of rapid economic and population growth, particularly driven by tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI). The goal is to provide a tool for assessing growth scenarios and their impacts, enabling the development of a sustainable growth model.

Main Objectives

• Assess Bonaire's carrying capacity for tourism and development.
• Provide an analytical tool to determine growth scenarios and simulate impacts.
• Support the Executive Council of Bonaire in formulating a growth strategy that balances economic, social, and environmental needs.

Key Outputs

• A snapshot of current development status, including economic, population, and infrastructure trends.
• Resident sentiment survey results, revealing public perception and experiential carrying capacity.
• Identification of carrying capacity indicators and priority issues.
• Analysis of growth scenarios (status quo, accelerated, and slow growth) with their respective pros and cons.
• Recommendations for policy, investment, and technology to mitigate carrying capacity constraints and promote sustainability.

Methodological Approach

• The study adopts the "pressure-capacity-potential" theoretical framework, focusing on the balance between urban development pressures, the island's capacity to support these pressures, and its potential for sustainable growth.
• It integrates stakeholder input through surveys, workshops, and interviews.
• Regression analysis was used to develop a growth model, which helped simulate different growth scenarios.
• The study also considers international and regional indicators based on the UNEP/MAP/PAP guidelines for tourism carrying capacity assessments.

Current Urban Carrying Capacity Pressure

Economic Development

• Bonaire's economy is heavily dependent on tourism, which accounts for a significant portion of GDP.
• In 2017, tourism contributed 30% directly and 80% including indirect effects to the island's GDP.
• Construction and real estate sectors have seen substantial growth due to tourism and FDI, with a 54% increase in construction and 18% in real estate between 2017 and 2019.
• The tourism sector has been a major driver of employment, with 67% growth in accommodation and food services between 2011 and 2021.

Resident Population Development

• The population of Bonaire has almost doubled since 2000, reaching 24,090 by 2023.
• The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2010 and 2022 was 2.9%.
• Migration balance has been the main driver of population growth, with net migration increasing to 1,403 in 2022.
• The population is expected to peak at around 28,100 by 2050, with a projected decrease in growth rate after 2030.

Tourism Development

• The number of non-resident air arrivals has tripled over the past 20 years, reaching 157,800 in 2019.
• In 2022, the island received 170,194 overnight visitors, with a 7.9% increase compared to 2019.
• Cruise tourism has also grown significantly, with cruise passenger numbers nearly tripling between 2012 and 2019, reaching 457,700 in 2019.
• In 2022, cruise passenger numbers were 304,298, with peak season arrivals still below 2019 levels.

Challenges

• Fragmented development policy hinders effective resource management.
• Narrow distribution of economic benefits exacerbates social inequality.
• Loss of cultural identity and social cohesion is a growing concern.
• Depletion of natural ecosystems threatens long-term sustainability.

Opportunities and Recommendations

• A cohesive development policy is essential to ensure sustainable growth.
• Affordable housing access should be prioritized to support resident needs.
• Fair benefit distribution is necessary to reduce inequality.
• Social equity and cultural integration must be addressed to maintain community cohesion.
• Effective productive infrastructure is crucial for supporting both residents and tourists.
• Protection and conservation of natural resources are vital for maintaining ecological balance.
• Climate resilience should be integrated into all development plans.

Conclusion

The study emphasizes the need for a balanced and sustainable approach to urban development on Bonaire. It highlights the importance of managing tourism and population growth in a way that preserves ecological integrity, cultural heritage, and social stability. The findings and recommendations aim to guide Bonaire towards a resilient and inclusive growth model that aligns with its environmental and social constraints.

Key Contributors

• Paloma Zapata
• Martine Bakker
• Stefan Leeffers
• Kareline Van Der Linden
• Darice Solognier
• Bart Rutten

References

• OLB (2021a)
• WTTC (2022)
• CBS (2022a)
• CBS (2022b)
• TCB (2022a)
• TCB (2023)
• ForwardKeys (2022)
• Li B et al. (2022)

Appendices

• Appendix A: Bonaire Carrying Capacity Indicator Framework
• Appendix B:
• Appendix C:
• Appendix D:
• Appendix E: