世界银行-北马其顿政策说明（英）-2024_118页_2mb

North Macedonia Policy Notes Summary

Executive Summary

North Macedonia has experienced economic growth and reduced poverty, but faces challenges including high public debt, income inequality, environmental pollution, and slow productivity. The country aims to bridge the income gap with the EU through reforms, focusing on macro-fiscal stability, structural reforms, and green/digital transitions by 2030. Key risks include inflation, low productivity, and climate-related disruptions.

Macroeconomics and Public Financial Management

Public finances are strained due to crisis-related spending, leaving no fiscal space for consolidation. Prioritizing fiscal risks for SOEs, PPPs, and state aid is essential. Continuous reforms are needed to align government finance statistics with EU standards and improve public financial management (PFM) systems, including taxation administration and payment systems modernization. SEPA integration and partial credit guarantees can enhance financial stability.

Poverty and Inclusion

Poverty reduction has slowed, with spatial disparities persisting. Enhancements to early childhood education and social assistance programs are needed. Additional investments in skills development and cash transfer programs are necessary to improve labor force participation, particularly for Roma, youth, and women.

Education

Learning outcomes have declined, with significant disparities between socioeconomic groups. Key challenges include low teacher training funding, inefficient spending, and outdated curricula. Improving access to quality education and linking education with vocational training are priorities. The Human Capital Index score is low, necessitating stronger foundational skills.

Health Systems

Health system challenges include high out-of-pocket payments, low public spending, and an aging population. Reforms focus on strengthening primary health care and long-term care services, improving digital health infrastructure, and managing non-communicable diseases. High healthcare costs burden low-income households, requiring better financial protection mechanisms.

Jobs and Migration

High unemployment, especially among youth and women, limits human capital development. Policy measures include improving employment services, digital skills training, and incentives for employers. Diaspora engagement and migration management aim to support economic diversification and workforce development.

Financial Sector

North Macedonia's financial system is bank-centric with limited stock exchange activity. Improving access to finance for MSMEs, promoting digitalization, and encouraging green finance are key priorities. Bridging gaps in the regulatory framework for public-private partnerships (PPPs) and partial credit guarantees is essential.

Private Sector Development and Innovation

Legal and regulatory constraints hinder private sector growth. Boosting digital and green skills through centers of excellence is needed. Aligning domestic firms with EU standards and improving SME support programs can foster innovation and export competitiveness.

Decarbonizing the Economy

North Macedonia has committed to significant emissions reductions by 2030. Challenges include coal dependency and infrastructure gaps. Policy recommendations include renewable energy investments, integrated climate policies, and just transition support for affected communities.

Energy Sector and Just Transition

Significant investments are required for renewable energy and energy efficiency. Implementing the Just Transition Roadmap is critical to manage the coal phase-out and ensure socioeconomic protection for affected regions.

Digital Development

Digital infrastructure deficits, especially affordability and access barriers, hinder economic participation. Strengthening digital skills, improving public services, and enhancing cybersecurity will support digital transformation and regional integration.

Transport

Corridor VIII requires upgrades to improve transit efficiency. Modernizing railway infrastructure to align with EU standards will reduce congestion. Decarbonizing transport sectors and promoting alternative mobility solutions are essential for sustainability.

Environment and Air Quality

Ambient air pollution poses a major health threat. The country needs to phase out coal, scale up renewable energy, and enforce emission standards for residential heating. Strengthening air quality management capacity and data monitoring is crucial.

Municipal Development and Disaster Risk Management

Municipalities face challenges in service delivery due to limited revenue and outdated infrastructure. Enhancing fiscal capacity, promoting public-private partnerships for service delivery, and building disaster resilience infrastructure are priorities.

Water Security and Climate Adaptation

Water resources are underutilized with high non-revenue water levels. Reforms in water governance, infrastructure development, and drought adaptation plans are needed to improve sustainability.

Agriculture

Yields remain low with limited market integration. Strengthening agricultural land management, reducing abandoned land, and promoting climate-smart technologies are key. Aligning agricultural policies with EU standards supports exports and farmer incomes.

World Bank Group Engagement

The World Bank supports North Macedonia with analytical services, lending programs, and technical assistance. Key projects include fiscal sustainability assessments, education quality improvements, and decarbonization initiatives. Collaboration under the Country Partnership Framework focuses on competitiveness, human capital, and climate resilience.