世界银行-新兴市场公司如何抵御全球利率变动（英）-2025_8页_1001kb

IFC Research Note: Emerging Market Companies Withstanding Global Interest Rate Shifts

Key Analysis

• Context: Since 2019, global interest rates have surged due to economic shocks, central bank policies, and inflation, with rates projected to remain above pre-pandemic levels in real terms.
• Emerging Market Corporate Borrowing Costs:
  • U.S. dollar-denominated bond yields rose from 4.8% in Dec 2019 to 6.4% in Sep 2024, less than advanced economies (IG yields increased from 2.7% to 4.7%).
  • Spreads over U.S. Treasuries remained stable, reducing vulnerability compared to past crises (e.g., 2013 "taper tantrum").
• Shift to Local Currency Borrowing: Companies increasingly use local currencies to avoid foreign exchange risks, especially in countries with deep capital markets (e.g., India). Emerging market firms' local-currency bond issuance rose notably.
• Resilience and Financial Health:
  • Interest coverage ratios for emerging market firms are similar to pre-pandemic levels.
  • While interest payments rose from ~6% to ~9% of total debt in lower-middle-income economies, profitability kept pace.
• Potential Vulnerabilities:
  • Rising global debt levels and leverage in emerging markets.
  • Persistent higher debt costs may hinder investment capacity.
  • Corporate reliance on foreign currency debt remains high in less developed economies.

Findings Summary

Emerging market companies have demonstrated resilience amid global rate shifts, with stabilized spreads and a shift toward local-currency debt. High interest coverage ratios show financial stability, but vulnerabilities persist due to elevated debt levels and ongoing global uncertainty. Resilience depends on sustaining profitability amidst economic shocks.