20260825-招银国际-小鹏集团-W-09868.HK-4Q26_volume_acceleration_robotics_fundraising_unlocks_SOTP_value_5页_1mb

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US/9868 HK) Summary

Core Content Overview

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US/9868 HK) is a Chinese automotive company that has recently reported its 2Q26 financial results, which showed in-line gross profit but a net loss that exceeded expectations due to higher SG&A expenses. Despite this, the company is projected to narrow its net loss in 3Q26E and potentially reach a breakeven in 4Q26E, driven by an expected increase in monthly sales volume to over 60,000 units. This is attributed to the resolution of supply chain bottlenecks for the new Mona L03 model.

The company's robotics business has attracted significant attention, with a fundraising of US$900 million from high-profile investors, valuing the robotics unit at US$6.3 billion. This valuation accounts for approximately 40% of Xpeng's total market cap and suggests a positive outlook for its robotics division, including robotaxi initiatives.

Main Points and Key Information

• Financial Performance in 2Q26:

  • Revenue was slightly below the prior forecast by about 1%.
  • Gross margin expanded to 20.7%, exceeding the estimated 20.2%.
  • SG&A expenses were higher than forecast by RMB250 million, attributed to increased marketing spend for new model launches.
  • Net loss of RMB1.3 billion, which is RMB490 million wider than expected.

• Sales Volume Outlook:

  • Management cited temporary supply chain bottlenecks as the reason for the soft 3Q26 sales guidance.
  • Expected to exceed 60,000 units in 4Q26E, driven by bottleneck resolution and new model launches (GX, G9L, Mona L03, and L05).
  • Revised FY26E sales volume forecast down by 8.8% to 456,000 units.

• Valuation and Investment Outlook:

  • Maintained BUY rating despite the net loss.
  • Revised target prices: US$16.00 (ADR) and HK$62.00 (H-shares), down from US$21.00 and HK$82.00.
  • Continued use of SOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) valuation methodology.
  • Valuation of robotics business at US$6.3 billion (10x FY27E P/S).
  • Auto business valued at 0.7x FY27E P/S (down from 1.0x), reflecting weaker market sentiment.
  • Target share price based on SOTP: US$16.00 (ADR) and HK$62.00 (H-shares).

• Financial Highlights (FY26E–FY28E):

  • Revenue: Expected to grow at 8.4% in FY26E, 27.3% in FY27E, and 12.6% in FY28E.
  • Gross Profit: Projected to increase from RMB15,772 million in FY26E to RMB22,262 million in FY28E.
  • Net Profit: Expected to improve from a loss of RMB4,357 million in FY26E to a profit of RMB2,266 million in FY28E.
  • Gross Margin: Expected to remain stable around 19.0% for FY26E and slightly decrease to 18.6% in FY27E.
  • Operating Margin: Projected to improve from -5.9% in FY26E to 0.4% in FY28E.
  • Net Margin: Expected to rise from -6.8% in FY26E to 1.9% in FY28E.

• Stock Performance:

  • 1-month return: -8.6% (US) and -7.3% (HK).
  • 3-month return: -22.0% (US) and -20.6% (HK).
  • 6-month return: -30.8% (US) and -29.1% (HK).
  • Current price: US$12.2 and HK$48.1.

• Market Cap and Share Details:

  • US market cap: US$11.678 billion.
  • HK market cap: HK$92.166 billion.
  • Issued shares: 1,916.14 million (US) and 1,916.14 million (HK).

• CMBIGM vs. Consensus:

  • Revenue estimates are slightly lower than consensus, with a -11.1% difference in FY26E.
  • Gross profit estimates are also lower than consensus, with a -11.1% difference in FY26E.
  • Net profit estimates are significantly lower than consensus, with a -35.7% difference in FY26E.

• Valuation Metrics:

  • P/S (Price-to-Sales) for FY27E: 0.7x for auto and 10x for robotics.
  • P/B (Price-to-Book) for FY27E: 2.9x.
  • Net profit margin is expected to improve from -6.8% in FY26E to 1.9% in FY28E.

Key Risks

• Lower-than-expected sales or gross profit margin.
• Slower monetization of robotics and robotaxi initiatives.
• Sector-wide de-rating affecting overall valuation.
• Potential changes in market sentiment affecting the auto business valuation.

Analyst Certification and Disclosures

• The research analyst certifies that all views expressed accurately reflect their personal opinions.
• No compensation is directly or indirectly linked to the report's content.
• The analyst has not traded in the stock within 30 days prior to the report and will not do so within 3 business days after.
• The report is not tailored to individual investors and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities.
• CMBIGM does not assume responsibility for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the report.
• The report is intended for use by the intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without consent.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
• HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
• SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months.
• NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIGM.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant market benchmark.

Legal and Distribution Notes

• This report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, or published without prior written consent.
• It is distributed in the UK only to persons falling within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Financial Promotion Order.
• In the US, it is intended solely for "major US institutional investors" and may not be distributed to others.
• In Singapore, the report is distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited, an exempt financial adviser, and may only be provided to Accredited Investors, Expert Investors, or Institutional Investors.