2011年-世界发展银行全球_Philippines_-_Typhoons_Ondoy_and_Pepeng___Post-Disaster_Needs_Assessment_-_Main_Report_84页_29mb

Summary of TYPHOONS ONDOY AND PEPENG: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment

Core Content

This report presents the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) conducted following the typhoons Ondoy (Ketsana) and Pepeng (Parma) in the Philippines during late September and early October 2009. The assessment evaluates the damage, losses, and economic and social impacts of the two typhoons, which affected over 9.3 million people, caused 956 deaths, 736 injuries, and left 84 persons missing. The PDNA is a joint effort involving the Government of the Philippines, private sector, civil society, and international development partners.

The PDNA covers 13 key economic sectors and cross-sectoral issues, including local government, social protection, finance, and disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM). It also includes an estimate of private sector damage and losses, which is a notable difference from previous assessments that focused only on public assets.

Main Points

• Disaster Overview

  • Ondoy (Ketsana): A Category I typhoon that caused widespread flooding in Metro Manila and surrounding areas.
  • Pepeng (Parma): A Category III typhoon that affected the Philippines from October 3 to 9, 2009, with cumulative rainfall exceeding 1,000 mm in some regions.
  • The combined economic impact of the two typhoons is estimated at US$4.38 billion, with 90% of damage and losses attributed to the private sector.
  • The human toll is significant, with over 9.3 million people affected and a return period of 50 years for the flood events.

• Economic and Social Impacts

  • The disaster caused a 0.4 percentage point decline in GDP growth in 2009 and a 0.4 percentage point increase in 2010.
  • Poverty incidence increased by 3 percentage points in the most affected areas and 0.5 percentage points nationally.
  • Total income loss amounted to Php 50.3 billion, with informal workers being the most affected.
  • 170 million workdays were lost, equivalent to 664,000 one-year jobs.

• Damage, Losses, and Needs Assessment

  • Total damage and losses: US$4.38 billion (equivalent to Php 206 billion).
  • Recovery needs: US$942.9 million.
  • Reconstruction needs: US$3.48 billion.
  • Public sector share: 55% (US$2.44 billion).
  • Private sector share: 45% (US$1.99 billion).
  • Fiscal implications: The disaster significantly impacted public revenues and expenditures, with revenue losses expected over the next year.

• Key Sectors Affected

  • Productive sectors: Agriculture, industry, commerce, and tourism.
  • Social sectors: Housing, education, cultural heritage, and health.
  • Infrastructure sectors: Electricity, water and sanitation, flood control, drainage, and transport.
  • Cross-sectoral issues: Local government, social protection, financial sector, and DRRM.

Key Recommendations and Strategies

• Recovery and Reconstruction Strategy

  • Building back better is essential to improve resilience and reduce future disaster risks.
  • The strategy emphasizes long-term investments in flood control, housing, land use planning, and disaster risk reduction.

• Rural Production

  • Immediate restoration of rural livelihoods is needed to prevent loss of production during the dry season.
  • Irrigation systems must be repaired, fields cleared, and farmers provided with inputs and finance.
  • A voucher system or direct cash transfers is recommended to support the poor more effectively than traditional input subsidy programs.

• Flood Management

  • Institutional changes, comprehensive planning, and investment in both restoration and new infrastructure are required.
  • Restoration of the existing drainage system and real-time monitoring are necessary in the medium term.
  • Long-term planning includes retaining water upstream, improving flow through the system, and maintaining Laguna de Bay.

• Housing

  • Most housing damage was concentrated in the informal sector, affecting low-income families.
  • Resettlement should be based on community consultation and livelihood restoration.
  • Verticalization and densification are proposed as solutions to urban housing challenges, with support from national agencies and LGUs.

• Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM)

  • The current DRRM system needs to be more proactive, coherent, and effective.
  • A comprehensive DRRM strategy is required, including risk assessment studies, early warning systems, and policy enforcement.

Conclusion

The PDNA highlights the severe economic and social impacts of the typhoons and emphasizes the need for coordinated recovery and reconstruction efforts. It underscores the importance of investing in disaster risk reduction and building resilient infrastructure to prevent future losses. The recovery and reconstruction needs are substantial, requiring domestic and international funding, with a focus on vulnerable communities and long-term sustainability. The Philippines is urged to mobilize resources, strengthen institutional frameworks, and enhance preparedness to ensure a resilient and sustainable recovery.