2025-03-16-世界银行-津巴布韦货币和汇率政策扭曲的财政成本（英）_27页_1mb

Summary

This World Bank working paper analyzes the fiscal costs of monetary and exchange rate policy distortions in Zimbabwe, focusing on three key channels: the Olivera-Tanzi effect (inflation-related tax payment lags), loss in customs duty revenue due to an overvalued official exchange rate, and loss in tax revenue from informalization.

• Olivera-Tanzi Effect: High inflation reduces real tax revenue due to delayed tax payments, while inflation tax gains are smaller. Between 2020-2023, Zimbabwe lost $2.8 billion from this effect.

• Customs Duty Losses: An overvalued exchange rate reduced customs duty revenue by approximately $582 million over this period.

• Informalization: Exchange rate controls and distortions increased informality, leading to substantial tax revenue losses—estimated at $1.15 billion—in 2020-2023.

The aggregate fiscal cost from these distortions reached $3.12 billion (2.5% of GDP) by December 2023. The study concludes that policies stabilizing prices and removing exchange rate distortions can significantly enhance government revenue.