2018-2019全球经济展望（英文）_224页-10mb

Global Economic Outlook 2018-2019 Summary

Core Content

The global economic recovery in 2017 was driven by a few key sectors, including Chinese property, US shale, and the broader commodity rebound. These sectors are now showing signs of slowing, necessitating a significant shift to non-energy investment to maintain the current global growth rate of 3.8%. Despite this, the global recovery appears broad in terms of the number of countries, but shallow in depth, with most of the improvement concentrated in commodity-producing nations.

Main Engines of Growth

• Chinese Property Sector: A major driver of global trade growth, contributing about 30% to the increase in import volumes. However, the sector is now slowing, with floor space sales dropping from 21% to 1%.
• US Shale Recovery: Responsible for a large portion of the US growth and investment rebound in 2017, with almost all the improvement in US investment linked to the energy sector.
• Commodity Rebound: Accounted for nearly all of the inflation normalization in developed markets (DM), about 80% of global trade normalization, and approximately 70% of global growth acceleration.

Inflation Trends

• Inflation Not Dead: While the US shows transitory weakness in core inflation, it is an outlier. Most countries are experiencing rising core inflation, with notable exceptions in Central Europe and Japan.
• Japan: On the verge of a substantial inflation pick-up, driven by wage growth and other factors.
• Central Europe: Wage growth has doubled over the last few quarters.

Growth and Inflation Forecasts

• US and UK: Expected to be 20bp below consensus growth.
• Japan: Expected to be 70bp above consensus growth and inflation.
• Eurozone: Expected to be 10bp above consensus growth.
• Brazil: Expected to be 70bp above consensus growth.
• Global Trade Growth: Likely to slow by about 60bp due to the lack of DM contribution to non-energy investment.

Risks and Opportunities

Upside Risks

• Larger-than-expected US tax cuts
• Abating policy uncertainty in the US and Europe, leading to a stronger investment response

Downside Risks

• Failure of global non-energy investment to pick up
• Running out of labour-market slack, forcing markets to reprice inflation and policy normalization
• Growth disappointment, particularly in the US, due to issues like NAFTA collapse, failed tax reform, or retail bankruptcies

Key Economic Indicators (2017F - 2019F)

Key Observations

• Survey Optimism vs. Hard Data: Surveys in developed markets (DM) suggest higher growth than the hard data model predicts, indicating a potential misalignment between expectations and reality.
• Global Leverage and Banking: The global private-sector leverage is at a turning point, with a shift from deleveraging to re-leveraging. This is partly due to the restructuring of bank balance sheets post-crisis, which has impacted credit growth.
• Policy Uncertainty: High policy uncertainty in the US and Europe poses a risk to the investment response and could lead to a slowdown in growth and trade.
• Emerging Markets (EM): EM countries have been the main contributors to global growth, particularly in import volumes. However, their growth is expected to slow as the commodity rebound fades.
• Central Bank Outlook: The Federal Reserve is expected to resume buying US Treasuries in three years, and by 2025, it will hold US$1.5 trillion more in US Treasuries than today.

Conclusion

The global economic outlook for 2018-2019 suggests a continuation of the current growth environment, albeit with a shift in the drivers. While the main engines of growth from 2017 are slowing, new sources of growth and investment are expected to emerge. Inflation is not dead but is in a slow process of recovery, with some countries like Japan and Central Europe showing stronger signals. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for growth and inflation to remain close to current levels, but with significant deviations from consensus in specific regions. The success of the recovery will depend on the ability of non-energy investment to pick up and the resolution of policy uncertainties.