20240226-德邦证券-策略周报_估值手册-估值反弹_预期上修_10页_1mb

Content Analysis

Core Conclusions:

1. Market Valuation Overview: In early February 2024, Chinese A-share valuations (total market PE) were at relatively low historical levels (1610x for overall A, at the 33rd percentile since 2012) with the ChiNext Index hitting its all-time lowest valuation relative to 2012 data (2586x PE, 1st percentile). Expected earnings for 2023 (2023E) reflect downward adjustments across major broad indices, but expected 2024E valuations are also among the lowest recorded since 2012 (1266x overall A, 10th percentile).

2. VC Window ('Valuation-Report' Window? Or VB?): Supported by weaker expected earnings growth and significantly compressed expected valuations for 2024E, overall valuations appear slightly lower than previously. There is expectation for an improved 'valuation-performance' balance in the new year.

3. Individual Index Valuations:

   • ChiNext (180 Growth Enterprise Index): Remains globally one of the most valued by all metrics (e.g., high weighting in the Nasdaq Index valuation ladder), creating a contrast with other major Chinese indices and international standards.
   • US Indices (e.g., Nasdaq): Primarily traded at high historical valuation levels (80th percentile for PB and PE for Nasdaq).

4. VC/ROE Inverse Relationship (?):

   • Overall market: Low valuation combined with low profitability performance, causing the VC/ROE ratio to become negative.
   • ChiNext: Described again as one of the most undervalued segments globally in terms of P/E relative to 2012 data.

5. Industry Profit Growth (2024E): A number of industries, particularly heavyweights such as basic chemicals, electronics, defense, social services, and computing, are expected to show accelerating profit growth (peaking at ~20% or more). This growth potential, combined with high valuation expectations, could serve as a catalyst for stock rebounds or performance differentiation in the new year.

Key Industry Highlights for 2024E Growth: Basic chemicals, electronics, defense, social services, computer, and integrated sectors are among the industries expected to demonstrate significantly improved revenue/earnings momentum.

Risk Factors Summary:

1. Data Sources: The valuation metrics are based on historical financial data or 'Consensus Forecast' data from Wind, which inherently carry some lag and potential incompleteness.
2. Historical Context Limitations: Historical valuation percentiles (e.g., over 2012 data) do not guarantee future market movements or prevent valuation levels from changing further.
3. VC Performance Doesn’t Guarantee Success: Low or high valuation levels are lagging indicators that do not necessarily correlate directly with future performance or directional movement.