2021-11-10-高盛-高盛2022年全球经济展望_106页_5mb

报告摘要

Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group

Goldman Sachs maintains its "US Preeminence" and "Stay Invested" themes despite elevated valuations and heightened risks. The team emphasizes:

Base Case for 2022: US equities expected to deliver mid-single-digit returns (6.3% base case) driven by resilient growth and corporate earnings, despite valuation pressures from interest rate hikes.
Low Recession Probability: 10% odds of a US recession due to strong labor markets and fiscal/monetary support.
High Hurdle for Underweighting Equities: Strategic overweight to US equities is warranted due to structural advantages, and tactical tilts provide alpha opportunities.
Asset Class Allocation:
- Equities: Overweight US; tactical tilts in bank loans, EM currencies, energy, and health-care.
- Fixed Income: Underweight duration; cash may outperform in 2022.
- Currencies: Long US dollar; hedge non-local developed market exposures.

US: Strong earnings growth (11-13% YoY) and low valuations relative to history support outperformance.
Non-US: Moderate returns expected, but tactical bets (e.g., EMEA banks) may add alpha.
Emerging Markets: Valuations remain discounted, but policy and growth risks limit upside.

US Treasuries: Yields may rise to 1.75-2.25%; TIPS may deliver strong returns due to inflation expectations.
EM Local Debt: Flat returns expected; currency depreciation and rate hikes weigh.

US Dollar: Appreciation vs. Euro/JPY; long position recommended due to policy divergences.
EM Currencies: Widening spreads; tactical long in Brazilian real may help.

Oil: Prices supported by demand recovery; $70-90 WTI target.
Gold: Volatility ahead with taper concerns; medium-term bearish in rising rates.

COVID-19 Variants: Delayed vaccine efficacy or new waves could disrupt growth.
Inflation: Persistent high inflation may necessitate aggressive policy tightening.
Geopolitical Tensions: Russia/China risks, tech regulation, and cyberattacks pose volatility.
Recession: Improbable but possible if policy errors occur.

Stay Invested: No evidence justifies exiting equities despite high valuations.
Overweight US: Economic resilience and profitability advantages support allocation.
Tactical Tilts:
- Bank loans/leveraged loans for spread tightening.
- EM currency plays (Brazilian real).
- Energy equities for cyclical rebound.