Allianz-2020年度风险指数报告（英文）24页_5mb

Allianz Risk Barometer 2020 Summary

Core Content

The Allianz Risk Barometer 2020 identifies the top global business risks based on insights from 2,718 risk management experts across 102 countries and 22 industry sectors. The report highlights the evolving nature of corporate risks and their impact on businesses of all sizes, from Fortune 500 companies to small enterprises.

Main Risks Identified

Top 10 Global Business Risks

1. Cyber Incidents (39% of responses)

   • Ranks as the top business risk for the first time in the Allianz Risk Barometer.
   • Includes cyber crime, IT failures, data breaches, and potential fines and penalties.
   • Data breaches are the main cause, with average costs increasing significantly (e.g., $42 million for breaches involving over 1 million records).
   • Ransomware and business email compromise (spoofing) are growing threats.
   • Litigation costs are also rising, as seen in the Equifax case.
   • Political tensions and M&A activities increase cyber risk exposure.

2. Business Interruption (37% of responses)

   • Falls to second place from first in 2019.
   • Includes supply chain disruptions, fires, and natural catastrophes.
   • Contingent business interruption (CBI) events are more severe and widespread.
   • Industries like automotive and pharmaceuticals are particularly vulnerable due to global supply chains.

3. Changes in Legislation and Regulation (27% of responses)

   • Moves up to third place in the global rankings.
   • Includes trade wars, tariffs, economic sanctions, protectionism, and Brexit.
   • Sustainability regulations are becoming a major concern in Europe.

4. Natural Catastrophes (21% of responses)

   • Drops out of the top three global risks for the first time.
   • Includes storms, floods, and earthquakes.
   • Economic losses from natural disasters declined by 20% year-on-year in 2019.

5. Market Developments (21% of responses)

   • Remains at fifth place.
   • Includes volatility, intensified competition, M&A, and market stagnation.

6. Fire, Explosion (20% of responses)

   • Stays at sixth place.
   • A traditional cause of business interruption, but now combined with cyber and political risks.

7. Climate Change (17% of responses)

   • Rises to seventh place.
   • Driven by extreme weather events and their impact on supply chains and operations.
   • Companies face reputational, regulatory, and legal risks from climate change.

8. Loss of Reputation or Brand Value (15% of responses)

   • Rises to eighth place.
   • Social media amplifies the impact of reputation events on stock prices.
   • Businesses are increasingly aware of the need for tailored insurance solutions.

9. New Technologies (13% of responses)

   • Enters the top 10 for the first time.
   • Includes AI, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and blockchain.
   • Risks include liability issues, lack of transparency, and dependency on digital platforms.

10. Macroeconomic Developments (11% of responses)

    • A new entry in the top 10.
    • Concerns over global recession and debt accumulation, especially in the US and China.

Regional Highlights

• Australia: Cyber incidents, changes in legislation, and climate change are top risks.
• Brazil: Business interruption and cyber incidents are top risks.
• Canada: Business interruption and cyber incidents are top risks.
• China: Business interruption, cyber incidents, and changes in legislation are top risks.
• France: Cyber incidents, business interruption, and fire/explosion are top risks.
• Germany: Business interruption, cyber incidents, and changes in legislation are top risks.
• Italy: Business interruption, cyber incidents, and loss of reputation are top risks.
• Singapore: Business interruption, cyber incidents, and changes in legislation are top risks.
• South Africa: Cyber incidents, business interruption, and changes in legislation are top risks.
• Spain: Cyber incidents, business interruption, and natural catastrophes are top risks.
• USA: Cyber incidents, business interruption, and natural catastrophes are top risks.
• UK: Cyber incidents, changes in legislation, and business interruption are top risks.

Key Trends and Insights

• Cyber risk has surged in prominence, rising from 15th in 2013 to top in 2020.
• Business interruption remains a critical concern, especially with the increasing complexity of global supply chains.
• Changes in legislation are becoming a major driver of risk, with trade disputes and regulatory uncertainty affecting companies.
• Climate change is increasingly seen as a significant threat, influencing both physical and reputational risks.
• Reputational risk is growing, with social media amplifying its impact.
• New technologies are creating both opportunities and risks, with AI and digital platforms being major areas of concern.
• Macroeconomic developments are now a top risk due to fears of a global recession and debt accumulation.

Methodology

• The survey was conducted in October and November 2019.
• Over 2,700 risk management experts from 102 countries and 22 sectors participated.
• Risks are ranked by position year-on-year, not by percentage.
• Companies can select up to three risks per industry, leading to figures not summing to 100%.

Conclusion

The Allianz Risk Barometer 2020 underscores the growing complexity and diversity of business risks in a globalized and digitized economy. Cyber incidents have become the number one risk, while business interruption and changes in legislation follow closely. Climate change and new technologies are emerging as critical areas of concern, and reputational risk is also on the rise. The report emphasizes the need for businesses to enhance their risk management strategies, invest in cybersecurity, and prepare for business continuity and legal challenges.