德勤-UnitedStatesEconomicForecast_36页_2mb

Deloitte US Economic Forecast Summary (2nd Quarter 2021)

Core Content

This document presents Deloitte's economic forecast for the United States in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. It outlines the potential for economic recovery, challenges to certain sectors, and the long-term implications of the pandemic on the economy.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic Recovery: The US economy is expected to recover and outperform prepandemic levels in 2022, with strong growth in consumer spending, housing, and business investment.
• Avoidance of Scarring: Unlike typical recessions, the current downturn has not caused long-term damage to the economy, and in fact, has accelerated technological change.
• Productivity Growth: The pandemic has driven the adoption of new technologies, such as telecommuting and e-commerce, which are expected to boost productivity and GDP growth.
• Government Support: The administration is focusing on infrastructure and economic relief, with the expectation that these policies will support growth and employment.
• Sectoral Shifts: The recovery is not uniform across all sectors. Some industries, like housing and consumer services, are expected to perform well, while others, like office and retail spaces, may lag due to reduced demand.
• Trade Policy Uncertainty: There is a trend toward deglobalization, with potential for increased inflation and reduced reliance on foreign suppliers.
• Long-term Challenges: The pandemic may have lasting effects on inequality, retirement preparedness, and the overall structure of the economy.

Key Information

Consumer Spending

• Pandemic Savings: Households have accumulated significant savings, potentially leading to a surge in spending as restrictions ease.
• Durable Goods vs. Services: Spending on durable goods has increased sharply, while services have seen a decline. There is uncertainty about how households will reallocate spending as the economy recovers.
• Future Outlook: The long-term impact of the pandemic may worsen inequality and retirement preparedness, especially among lower-income groups.

Housing

• Strong Demand: The housing sector outperformed the broader economy due to remote work trends, low mortgage rates, and a demographic shift.
• Price Trends: Despite rising interest rates, housing prices are expected to continue increasing due to supply constraints and high demand.
• Future Supply: The aging population is expected to increase the supply of homes for sale over the next two decades, which could moderate price growth.

Business Investment

• Shift in Investment Focus: Investment in nonresidential structures has declined, while equipment and software investment has increased significantly.
• Technology Adoption: Businesses are investing in technology to adapt to a more virtual and digital economy.
• Energy Sector: The energy sector may be an exception, as weak demand for oil has led to a decline in investment.

Foreign Trade

• Deglobalization Trends: The pandemic has accelerated shifts away from global supply chains, with increased emphasis on resilience and diversification.
• Trade Policy Volatility: Trade policies under the Biden administration continue to prioritize domestic interests, potentially affecting global trade dynamics.
• Export and Import Growth: Exports are expected to grow strongly, while imports may grow more slowly due to increased domestic production and global demand for US assets.

Government Policy

• Infrastructure Spending: The Biden administration is pushing for significant infrastructure investment, though the actual amount is expected to be less than the original proposal.
• Corporate Tax Increase: The proposed increase in corporate taxes is a key component of the infrastructure plan, but faces political and business resistance.
• Deficit Reduction: The forecast assumes that the federal deficit will decrease by 2022 to about US$1.5 trillion annually, though this depends on continued investor confidence in US debt.

Scenarios

• Baseline (55%): High growth in 2021 and 2022, with gradual return to full employment and controlled inflation.
• Paging Dr. Pangloss (10%): A more optimistic scenario with faster recovery and continued growth, though with slightly higher inflation.
• Side Effects in Post-op (25%): A more challenging scenario where economic growth slows and GDP remains below prepandemic levels.
• The Patient Relapses (10%): A pessimistic scenario where new variants and a lack of government support lead to a prolonged and weaker recovery.

Conclusion

The US economy is on a path to recovery, supported by strong consumer spending, resilient business finances, and a shift toward technology-driven investment. However, the recovery is expected to be uneven, with certain sectors facing structural challenges. Government policy, particularly infrastructure investment and trade policy, will play a crucial role in shaping the long-term trajectory of the economy. While the short-term outlook is positive, the long-term impact of the pandemic may continue to present both opportunities and risks.