20240301-大越期货-聚烯烃早报_18页_698kb

LLDPE Market Summary

• Fundamentals: Neutral; crude oil prices fluctuating overnight, PMI data mixed (official:49.2%, expected, or revised; but specific values vary), slow domestic demand recovery post-holiday, low supply due to plant maintenance including shutdowns; inventory moderate.
• Basis: Negative (-146); LLDPE2405 contract out-of-contango, bearish signal.
• Inventory: High (PE comprehensive inventory: 706 million tons, slight change, bearish).
• Price Chart: 20-day moving average flat, closing prices above it, bullish.
• Positions: Net long positions increasing in LLDPE主力, positive.
• Outlook: Range-bound震荡 expected today; driven by strong cost support from low oil production profit, but weak demand recovery; inventory neutral.

PP Market Summary

• Fundamentals: Neutral; crude oil prices fluctuating overnight, PMI data mixed, slow demand recovery as downstream industries ramp up; inventory elevated.
• Basis: Negative (-93); PP2405 contract out-of-contango, bearish.
• Inventory: High (PP comprehensive inventory: 863 million tons, no change, bearish due to higher levels than usual).
• Price Chart: 20-day moving average flat, closing prices above it, bullish.
• Positions: Net long positions increasing in PP主力, positive.
• Outlook: Range-bound震荡 expected today; supported by cost factors but slow demand; inventory neutral to slightly negative bias.

Overall Market View

• Markets face range-bound price action; fundamentals are balanced with neutral overall but bearish on inventories and slow demand recovery.

Key Risk Factors

• Crude oil price volatility could impact price movements.