2022-12-06-国际劳工组织-2022-2023年全球工资报告_148页_5mb

Summary of ILO Global Wage Report 2022–23: The Impact of Inflation and COVID-19 on Wages and Purchasing Power

This ILO flagship report examines how concurrent crises—COVID-19, rising inflation, and geopolitical instability—have affected global wages, purchasing power, and inequalities. Key findings include:

1. Economic Context

• Global GDP growth slowed from a peak of 6.6% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022, projected further to 2.7–2.9% in 2023.
• Inflation rose dramatically (8–9%+ in many regions), eroding real wages and increasing debt burdens for households.
• Unemployment deficits persist in many countries, with employment gaps disproportionately affecting low-paid workers and women.

2. Wages and Real Purchasing Power

• Global average monthly wages fell by 0.9% in real terms in 2022 (first negative growth since 2008), accelerated by emerging economies increasing to –1.4%.
• Inflation disproportionately impacts low-income households: essential goods (food, housing, energy) absorb higher income shares, reducing purchasing power for vulnerable groups.
• Minimum wages declined, worsening real wages (e.g., Sri Lanka’s wages fell by 36.8% over three years).

3. Composition Effects on Wages

• Job losses concentrated in low-paid jobs during COVID-19, lifting average wages in some countries (e.g., US, Canada) due to worker replacement by higher-paid ones.
• By 2022, inflation became the dominant factor depressing wages, with composition effects fading due to labor market recovery.

4. Gender and Informal Employment Gaps

• Women faced larger employment losses than men, deepening gender wage gaps in several countries (e.g., Colombia, Indonesia).
• Informal employment expanded faster than formal jobs in post-pandemic years, exacerbating job insecurity.

5. Policy Recommendations

• Social dialogue: Use empirical data to inform bipartite/tripartite negotiations on wages to avoid wage–price spirals.
• Minimum wage adjustment: Regularly adjust wages to offset inflation’s effects—e.g., Brazil uses a tailored inflation index.
• Reduce energy costs: Temporary VAT reductions in countries like Germany and Spain help mitigate crises’ impact.

6. Policy Responses to Inflation

• Align nominal wages with productivity growth to prevent inequalities from rising post-COVID.
• Distinguish inflation’s effects across income groups to target relief for low-income households.

Overall

This report underscores how COVID-19 and inflation have widened inequalities and threatened economic stability. Urgent action via social dialogue, minimum wage reforms, and multilateral policies is key to fostering inclusive recovery and social justice.