2024年橡胶年度策略：胶虽维艰，其运可期-20231224-国投安信期货-27页_1mb

Rubber Market 2024 Outlook Summary

Supply Analysis

Natural rubber supply pressure remains generally moderate due to stable global production, offset by challenges like weather issues and reduced domestic planting. Synthetic rubber faces significant pressure from ongoing capacity expansion, with continued growth in 2024 expected, weakening cost support.

Demand Analysis

Domestic demand shows signs of recovery, driven by a rebound in the auto and tire industries. Externally, exports are strong, particularly in tire exports, though global macro uncertainty persists.

External Factors

Macro conditions may improve with policies shifting, but oil markets remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics, influencing rubber prices indirectly.

Investment Outlook

Rubber prices are at historical lows with low valuations, offering trend opportunities as market balance improves. Cross-commodity arbitrage is likely to increase, while cash-physical arbitrage decreases. Patience is needed for catalysts like policy changes.