2022-11-15-FAO-2022年全球粮食展望报告_100页_4mb

Food Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Food Outlook is a bimonthly report published by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) that provides an analysis of global food markets. It includes detailed forecasts for key food commodities and market indicators, offering insights into production, utilization, trade, and stock levels. The report is structured into sections such as Markets at a Glance, Major Policy Developments, and Statistical Tables, with additional resources available for further analysis.

Main Commodity Forecasts

Rice

• Global rice production is expected to decrease slightly due to adverse weather and rising input costs.
• However, large carry-ins and an overall adequate harvest will keep supplies abundant.
• Exportable availabilities may be tighter, but the overall supply is expected to remain sufficient.

Wheat

• Production is forecast to reach a record 784 million tonnes in 2022/23, up by 0.6% from the previous season.
• The increase is mainly due to harvest recoveries in Canada and the Russian Federation, offsetting declines in Argentina, Australia, the European Union, India, Morocco, and Ukraine.
• Utilization is expected to rise marginally by 0.3%, driven by increased food consumption and industrial use.
• Inventories are projected to increase by 2.0%, reaching 300 million tonnes, the highest on record.
• Trade is forecast to decline by 1.0%, primarily due to export disruptions and reduced import demand in certain regions.

Meat

• Global meat production is expected to grow moderately in 2022.
• However, production growth is slowing in pig and poultry sectors due to animal diseases and margin erosion.
• Trade may decline slightly, especially for pig meat, due to high prices and economic downturns.

Coarse Grains

• Total production is forecast to fall by 2.8% to 1467 million tonnes, the lowest since 2019.
• Maize production is the main factor behind this decline, with smaller harvests in the EU, Ukraine, and the US.
• Utilization is expected to drop by 1.2%, with the largest decline in feed use, particularly maize.
• Inventories are forecast to decrease by 5.3%, driven by drawdowns in major markets like China, the EU, and the US.
• Trade is expected to decline by 3.4%, with reduced purchases by China and Türkiye, and lower exports from the US, Australia, and Ukraine.

Sugar

• World sugar production is set to increase, with a surplus of 4.9 million tonnes expected in 2022/23.
• Trade is forecast to grow moderately, supported by larger export availabilities compared to the previous season.

Oilcrops

• Market conditions for oilseeds and derived products are expected to ease slightly from the previous season.
• However, the outlook remains tight due to production uncertainties and geopolitical factors.

Dairy

• Global milk production is expected to grow slowly in 2022, impacted by extreme weather, labor shortages, and high input costs.
• Trade could contract due to high prices and economic downturns, particularly in China, where domestic production is rising.

Fisheries

• Global fisheries and aquaculture production is projected to increase by 1.2% in 2022, with aquaculture growing by 2.6% and capture fisheries slightly declining by 0.2%.
• Prices may rise due to supply limitations and inflation, but a slowing global economy could increase price sensitivity.

Key Market Indicators

• Global Food Import Bill (FIB): Expected to reach USD 1.94 trillion in 2022, a new record.
• Global Agricultural Input Import Bill (IIB): Forecast to hit USD 424 billion, a near 50% increase from 2021 and more than double the 2020 level.
• Ocean Freight Rates: Declined significantly over the past six months due to geopolitical tensions, export restrictions, and global recession fears.
• FAO Food Price Index: Continued to rise, with the wheat price index reaching 167 in January–October 2022, a 23.9% increase from the previous year.

Policy and Legal Notes

• The report is produced by the FAO Markets and Trade Division and is subject to a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence.
• Users must cite the work appropriately and avoid suggesting FAO endorsement of any specific organization, product, or service.
• The use of the FAO logo is not permitted unless authorized.
• Third-party materials, such as images and data, require permission from the respective copyright holders.

Additional Resources

• FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
• Crop Prospects and Food Situation
• AMIS Market Monitor

Contact Information

• Erin Collier
• Jonathan Pound (Production)

Structure of the Report

• Markets at a Glance: Provides a quick overview of each commodity.
• Major Policy Developments: Highlights significant policy changes affecting food markets.
• Statistical Tables: Offers detailed data and figures for each commodity and market indicator.

Conclusion

The Food Outlook highlights the challenges and trends shaping global food markets, emphasizing the impact of climate variability, geopolitical tensions, economic conditions, and input costs. While some commodities like wheat and rice show positive production trends, others like coarse grains and dairy face potential declines in trade and utilization. The report underscores the importance of monitoring these dynamics to support food security and market stability.