粮食展望——全球粮食市场半年报告（英文）-144页_19mb

Food Outlook Summary

Core Content

The FAO Food Outlook is a biannual report analyzing global food markets, focusing on production, utilization, trade, and stock trends for various food commodities. The report highlights the resilience of global food systems despite ongoing risks and challenges.

Main Points

Global Food Market Trends

• Production and Stocks: While some basic foodstuffs are expected to see increased production and higher closing stocks, global food production systems remain vulnerable to shocks from extreme weather, geopolitical tensions, policy changes, and market developments.
• Prices: Prices for some commodities, such as wheat and coarse grains, have declined due to ample supplies and strong competition among exporters. However, prices for other commodities like rice remain elevated due to export curbs and strong purchases in Asia.

Key Commodities Outlook

WHEAT

• Global wheat production is forecast to decline slightly (0.1%) to 787 million tonnes in 2024.
• Utilization is expected to contract by 0.8% to 794 million tonnes in 2024/25, with declines in feed and other uses concentrated in China and India.
• World wheat stocks are projected to decrease by 1.6% to 307 million tonnes, with major declines in the EU, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation.
• Wheat trade is expected to contract by 1.2% to 198 million tonnes in 2024/25, mainly due to lower imports by China and the EU.
• Wheat prices are expected to remain under downward pressure due to increased supplies and reduced utilization.

COARSE GRAINS

• Global coarse grain production is forecast to decline by 0.3% to 1525 million tonnes in 2024.
• Trade is expected to contract by 2.4% to 230 million tonnes in 2024/25, driven by lower exports from Brazil and Ukraine, and reduced import demand from China.
• Utilization is forecast to reach a record high of 1526 million tonnes, mainly due to increased feed use of maize and sorghum.
• Stocks are expected to rise by 3.4% to 385 million tonnes, with the largest increases in maize, barley, and sorghum.
• Coarse grain prices are expected to remain below average for the season, maintaining a bearish market tone.

RICE

• Global rice production is expected to reach a new peak of 534.9 million tonnes in 2024/25, driven by attractive prices and government support.
• Utilization is projected to increase by 1.2% to 531.4 million tonnes, with stocks rising to a record 205.1 million tonnes.
• International rice trade is forecast to decline to a four-year low of 51.4 million tonnes in 2024, mainly due to reduced purchases in Africa.
• Asian countries are expected to maintain relatively robust import levels, while trade from India and Viet Nam is likely to decrease due to export restrictions.

MEAT

• Global meat production is forecast to expand marginally in 2024, led by increased poultry meat output.
• Despite challenges like extreme weather, animal diseases, and thin profit margins, trade is expected to rebound as demand exceeds domestic supply in leading importers.

SUGAR

• Global sugar prices declined significantly in 2023/24 due to improved supply prospects.
• Consumption is forecast to rise above recent trends, with global trade expected to expand due to strong import demand and ample export supplies.

OILCROPS

• Global oilseed production is expected to reach a record high of 667.6 million tonnes in 2023/24, driven by higher soybean and sunflower seed outputs.
• Oilmeal stocks are likely to accumulate further, while vegetable oil ending stocks may contract due to outpacing production with consumption growth.
• In 2024/25, oilseed production is expected to continue expanding, with consumption growth likely to be outpaced, leading to higher inventory levels.

DAIRY

• World milk production is forecast to reach 979 million tonnes in 2024, up 1.4% from 2023.
• Asia will lead production growth due to increasing dairy cow numbers and large-scale farm contributions.
• Global dairy trade is expected to recover moderately, despite subdued import demand in some countries.

FISHERIES

• Capture fisheries landings are expected to remain stable, while aquaculture is expanding.
• Prices for some aquatic products are falling due to increased supply and stagnant consumer spending.
• Rising production costs continue to challenge the sector.

Special Features

Focus on Fertilizers

• Fertilizer markets have been affected by economic, environmental, and geopolitical factors.
• Prices declined in 2023 due to increased production and lower energy costs, but remain vulnerable to energy market shocks.

Dynamic Effects of Shipping Costs on the Food Import Bill

• Recent disruptions in maritime transport have increased pressure on international trade.
• The report analyzes how changes in shipping costs, particularly for dry bulk and container shipping, impact the food import bill in developing countries.
• Lower shipping costs can reduce the import bill, while higher costs increase it.

Key Data Highlights

• Global Cereal Production: 2846 million tonnes (milled equivalent) in 2024/25, nearly equal to the 2023/24 record.

• Global Cereal Utilization: 2851 million tonnes, a new record.

• Global Cereal Stocks: 897 million tonnes, a 1.5% increase.

• FAO Cereal Price Index: 118.7 in May 2024, down 8.2% from the previous year and 5.7% below the five-year average.

• Global Wheat Price Index: 109 in May 2024, down 21% from 2023.

• Global Coarse Grain Price Index: 108 in May 2024, down 0.2% from 2023.

• Global Rice Price Index: 139 in May 2024, up 11.2% from 2023.

Conclusion

The report outlines a cautiously optimistic outlook for global food markets, with most commodities expected to see increased production and stocks. However, it also highlights the persistent risks posed by weather, geopolitical tensions, and market dynamics that could disrupt these trends. Prices are expected to remain volatile, and trade flows may be affected by shipping costs and export restrictions. The report serves as a critical reference for understanding global food market trends and their implications for food security.