2018粮食展望（英文版）-5mb

报告摘要

Food Outlook Summary - November 2018

Core Content

The FAO Food Outlook report provides a biannual analysis of global food markets for the 2018/19 marketing season, highlighting trends in production, trade, utilization, and prices across various agricultural commodities. It includes detailed market assessments, policy developments, and statistical tables to support its findings.

Main Commodity Analyses

Wheat

Production: Forecasted at 727.9 million tonnes, a 4.3% decline from the 2017 record level.
Utilization: Expected to increase only marginally, with food consumption rising by 1.0%.
Ending Stocks: Projected to fall by 4.5%, reaching 264.4 million tonnes.
Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Set to decline to 35.0%, a five-year low.
Major Exporters Stocks-to-Disappearance Ratio: Expected to drop to 16.3%, also a five-year low.
International Prices: Continued to decline, with the FAO Wheat Price Index at 147 in Jan-Oct 2018, reflecting 10.7% increase from Jan-Oct 2017.
Trade: Forecast to contract by 1.9%, with declines in Russia, EU, and Australia, and a rebound from the US, Argentina, and Canada.

Coarse Grains

Production: Anticipated to fall by 2.2%, with a 6-year low in barley.
Utilization: Expected to rise by 2.2%, driven by strong feed and industrial demand in China and the US.
Ending Stocks: Forecast to decrease by 12.3%, reaching 321.0 million tonnes.
World Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Projected to drop to 22.3%, a five-year low.
Major Exporters Stocks-to-Disappearance Ratio: Expected to fall to 12.5%.
International Prices: The FAO Coarse Grain Price Index increased by 5.9% over Jan-Oct 2017.
Trade: Expected to remain close to the 2017/18 record level, with a rise in maize trade offsetting a decline in sorghum.

Rice

Production: Forecast to increase by 1.3%, reaching a new record high.
Utilization: Projected to rise by 1.1%, with food consumption increasing by 1.5%.
Ending Stocks: Anticipated to grow by 2.6%, reaching 176.6 million tonnes.
Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Expected to rise to 34.2%, the highest in 17 years.
Major Exporters Stocks-to-Disappearance Ratio: Set to increase to 19.3%.
International Prices: The FAO Rice Price Index reached 226 in Jan-Oct 2018, a 11.0% increase from Jan-Oct 2017.
Trade: Predicted to decline by 1.3%, with reduced purchases by China, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, while African and other countries are expected to increase imports.

Oilcrops, Oils and Meals

Production: Global oilseed production is forecast to reach a new record at 616.1 million tonnes, led by soybean and sunflower seed.
Utilization: Growth in oils/fats consumption is expected, while meals/cakes utilization is projected to slow.
Ending Stocks: Likely to rise, especially in the soybean complex, with major exporters' stock-to-disappearance ratios possibly reaching historical highs.
International Prices: Soybean prices have been under downward pressure, while oils and meals prices have continued to fall.
Trade: Expected to recover slightly, with US-China trade relations and palm oil production in Southeast Asia being key factors influencing prices.

Sugar

Production: Projected to grow modestly, surpassing consumption and resulting in a smaller surplus than last year.
Consumption: Set to increase in line with long-term trends, especially in Africa, Asia, and Central America.
Ending Stocks: Forecast to rise to 113.8 million tonnes, an 9.1% increase.
International Prices: Declined steadily from early 2018 to September, then rebounded slightly in October.
Trade: Expected to increase, with China anticipated to become the top international sugar buyer.

Key Policy and Market Developments

Trade Policies: Uncertainties around trade policies have contributed to a decline in global food prices.
Exchange Rates and Energy Prices: These factors have influenced market dynamics, with energy prices indirectly supporting sugar prices.
Market Indicators: The report includes updated assessments on futures markets, ocean freight rates, food import bills, and FAO price indices.

Feature Articles

Coffee Prices: The report discusses the depressed international coffee prices, attributing the decline to trade disputes and demand slowdowns.
Bananas and Tropical Fruits: Developments in these markets are highlighted, focusing on trends and challenges.

Additional Resources

Cereal Supply and Demand Brief: Available at http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituational
Rice Market Monitor: Available at http://www.fao.org/economic/RMM/
Oilcrops Monthly Price and Policy Update: Available at http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/oilcrops-publications/monthly-price-and-policy-update/
AMIS Market Monitor: Available at http://www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring

Contact Information

Abdolreza Abbassian: Senior Economist, abbassian@fao.org
Jonathan Pound: Production, pound@fao.org
Thomas Bower: bower@fao.org
Peter Thoenes: thoenes@fao.org
Elmamoun Amrouk: amrouk@fao.org

Required Citation

FAO. 2018 Food Outlook - Biannual Report on Global Food Markets – November 2018. Rome. 104 pp. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.
ISBN 978-92-5-131096-0
© FAO, 2018